Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Is it Time to put on some Shorts?
When I start seeing black candles I tend to want to put on some shorts(literally and figuratively), go out and play golf, come back in a couple of weeks and buy a few GARP Stocks.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
It is Time to Pass Health Care Reform
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Watching the $
This index is worth watching right now in my opinion! Looking at the daily chart the US Dollar is now setting inside of the support trading band. Most recently that trading band has been bullish. Price has been above the band for sometime now. That band has turned neutral.(sideways)_In other words it's not trending up or down but has turned toward the 3 o'clock on the chart. Is this distribution or rest and pause before a third leg up since finding support at 74.21
Looks like a good time to start watching the short term trend on some of the majors. Personally the shortest time frame that I chart on the currencies is 3-minute. Other than that I'll also watch my charts set to 133tk, then a 1 hour with pivots and also a 2 hour with a 34 hi-lo-close ema trading band. Then of course once/day I'll look at the daily. Once/week I'll look at the weekly. Once/month I'll look at the monthly time frames.
I know this post sounds indecisive and it should. That's where the market is at this point. Undecided! But, the effects of direction in this currency could effect the price in commodities, bonds and stocks.
The recent run in the stock market with light volume is not a very convincing breakout! When the pullback comes we should look to find support at or near the breakout point that everyone talks about. 1145-1150 on the S&P! We could possibly see a high of 1227 before that pullback happens. Then I expect to see the VIX to continue moving up with price for sometime. Most people associate a rising VIX with falling prices in stocks. But that is not always the case. Volatility also occurs to the upside not always the downside.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Volume Surge
Here's a stock I love to hate! But, by the looks of the recent surge in volume, some people are starting to fall in love with this one. It has the possibility of retracement to 3 bagger territory over the next few years which would approach the $30 range. It could do much better depending on licensing revenues and managements ability to turn this big ship around in rough waters. This stock has gone from a low of $4.12 in March of 2009 to close above $10 today. Over 100% gain and somehow still flying way below the radar!Big H&S
Click on the chart for a better view. This is a Ford common stock chart that shows the long term reverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is around the $8.80/share line. The exact bottom was $1.01/share. If you figure the difference from the bottom of the head to the neckline, then add that amount to the breakout of the neckline it gives you a initial target price of around $16.60/share. As of today the stock closed @ $13.49 and with the possibility of a retest of the breakout, buying here is not advantageous. Best to wait for a pull back or possible retest of the neckline for support. As things stand at this time if you where to buy at say $$13.50 you would be looking to make $3.10/share but if the neckline support where to be broken and stop you out just below $8.80/share that would be a loss of $4.70/share. The odds just don't stack in your favor. BE PATIENT!
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Biotech Surge
Looks like somebody has lit the fuse on the Biotech Rocket!
Here is the ETF that I found most closely tracks the Index.
Here is the ETF that I found most closely tracks the Index.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Taking a Look at the Past
The highlighted boxes are all along a line that has some significance. The first time we found resistance there was in 1997 with the Russian debt default. The second time was during the bear market rally after 9/11. The 3rd time the market stalled at that level was during the Iraq War bull market. Now once again the market has found it's way to this level. Notice the new addition to the sidebar! The Economic Calendar courtesy of FXSTREET.com
Click on the link for FXstreet.com then find and click the Fundamentals tab. Once the economic calendar pops up be sure to click the link at the bottom to "View Full Calendar".
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
03/03/2010
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
03/02/2010
I think this is one of the best post Charles as ever made. The Kirk Report
What's in the data? The Economist
Nascent=The Daily Reckoning
What's in the data? The Economist
Nascent=The Daily Reckoning
Monday, March 1, 2010
03/01/2010
Looks like the 9:30GMT data release from the UK made for a great trade if you were awake at 3:30CST.I happened to still be sleeping off the 3-2 defeat to the cannucks in the Gold Medal hockey game. Then when they released their economic data @ 7:30CST the looney beat the dollar like a red headed snow boarder.
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