Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Commercials are Never Wrong
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Looking for Retracement to 1490
Monday, November 26, 2007
Look at the Candles!!
Keep watching the candles! Look for a blended candle pattern. Always watch the past 2 or 3 candles and start looking for big volume once we approach the Feb/Aug low trend line. The example to the left shows one bullish reversal pattern and one bearish reversal pattern. Being that we are in a correction of a bull market, we are looking for a bullish pattern for the reversal signal. Whether it is a single candle pattern or a blended candle pattern, who cares, just make sure you see big volume to go along with it. Keep watch all the charts on page 1 of Red Dirt Trader. Look to the longer term charts, weekly & monthly. Pay close attention to the moving averages of both charts to see if we get some sort of a bounce. If we violate those ma's just remember,"If someone throws you a potato, it shouldn't take you long to figure out if it is hot."
Nearing the BOTTOM
Labels: candlestick charts, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Added an old chart to my Public List @ Stockcharts.com
The chart to the left is a new addition to Red Dirt Trader Charts. It appears to me we are now in the 3rd and final wave of the unwinding of the carry trade. I've watched this chart for sometime now but just decided today to make it public.
As we enter the final hour of trading today the S&P is down 11 points and the percent of stocks trading above their 50 day ma is @ 18%. That would put the number below 100 on the Secret Recipe Chart. I'm putting money back to work in chunks. I feel like the upside potential from here out-weighs the risk. We are so close to the support trend lines on chart #11 for the daily S&P 500 that this seems like a good buying opportunity.
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Monday, November 19, 2007
New Chart of the Day
There is still hope we could close near this years high water mark if history has anything to do with it.
TWO SIGNS OF VALUE
SIGN 1
SIGN 2
Friday, November 16, 2007
FBB Scan Criteria
- FBB SCAN• For the last market close:• United States Stocks with...• Daily Close for today is greater than Maximum Close over 60 days starting yesterday• Daily Close for today is greater than Daily Open for today• Daily Close for today is greater than or equal to 0.25• 63-day Exponential Moving Average of Volume for yesterday is less than or equal to 500000• Daily Close for today is greater than Daily Close for yesterday• Daily Volume for today is greater than or equal to Minimum Volume over 60 days starting today times 5• Daily Volume for today is greater than or equal to Daily Volume for yesterday times 3• Daily Close for today is less than or equal to 5
Here's the Scan Expression:
- [type = stock] and [country = us] and [daily close > yesterday's daily max(60,daily close)] and [daily close > daily open] and [daily close >= 0.25] and [yesterday's daily ema(63,daily volume) <= 500000] and [daily close > yesterday's daily close] and [daily volume >= daily min(60,daily volume) * 5] and [daily volume >= yesterday's daily volume * 3] and [daily close <= 5]
This scan only produces a list of stocks that meet the criteria above. That list of stocks is then thinned down by checking the recent chart pattern and looking at Insider holdings. You may want to thin the list down more by adding other criteria you deem necessary. Once you have your final list, the trading rules must be applied. Basically the first rule is to set a buy stop just above the breakout candlestick. I normally try to watch the open of trading just to make sure there isn't a big gap up. According to what I've read in S&C mag the chart is to be set up with a 3 day ema and 6 day ema. Once your order gets filled you are supposed to stay in the trade until the 3 day ema crosses below the 6 day ema. I have my own set of trading rules that I follow so I basically ignored the articles info on rules. I suggest you use your own trading rules also.
I've tweaked this basic scan by adding other criteria in order to create other scans. For instance adding a certain PE to find only stocks with positive earnings. Or, by adding criteria to find stocks in a certain sector or market cap. Any how, above is the basic layout, tweak away to help you find the stocks that are breaking out of a Flat Base trading range.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
My FBB Scan
My FBB scan produces stocks like this. The scan picked it up around $2.50/share. I built the scan from an article I read in S&C Magazine. I actually have 3 models of the scan that I can run each day. It could very well become a full time job. Click on this link to The Fine Art of Resurfacing and once you are there look for the Jeff Gendell link to see someone else that's interested in this company. What I liked about it was the insider ownership and also the price of raw materials do not effect their bottom line. This is a service company not a manufacturing company. The service they provide is the labor to produce the towers for all those BIG wind generators being erected everywhere. The steel for those towers is provided by the purchaser of tower. Kind of like "Express Personnel" here in Oklahoma. Bob Funk has become a Billionaire by providing labor for companies all over the world. It's not a publicly traded company and probably never will be as long as he's around. If your interested in seeing more stocks like this leave a comment.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
GARP SCAN
Labels: candlestick charts, stock scans, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Market Summary
What's Hot
GETTING DOWN TO DIRT CHEAP?
The Nasdaq 100 has under performed the S&P500 as you can tell by the chart to the left. However, we are getting very close to testing the breakout on the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart. It is now time to start looking for a reversal pattern on the Nasdaq 100 as well as some of your favorite tech stocks. Look for a hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish piercing candle with much higher than average volume for a signal that the bottom is in. HERE_ are some examples of some other reversal candle patterns. Some are stronger than others,,for example the hammer with very high volume most likely is THE Bottom. Sometimes a weaker reversal only leads to a temporary bounce (which is a playable trade) and then the downtrend continues. The SECRET RECIPE chart shows that the $SPXA50 has not yet reached my buy signal for the SP500. I'll continue to wait patiently to put some money back to work in my retirement account, which could be tomorrow, who the hell knows. I'm sure the chart will tell me when. But for now my money is drawing interest at a very low rate, still that's better than it disappearing into thin air. Be sure to check out at least the 1st four pages of charts @RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS for some insight to the market.
Labels: candlestick charts, Nasdaq 100, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Friday, November 9, 2007
Check out the $NDX(click here for updated chart)
Last Friday I added a comment to the weekly $NDX chart. The support areas are no longer valid as they have moved as the price has moved. So we now look to old resistance to see if new support tries to form in that area. If not look to old support. If all else fails just watch this CHART which led me to make this earlier POST .
Labels: major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Market Makes a U-turn on Wednesday
The S&P 500 closed below the long term trading band today and also the building support area around 1488 was violated. I'm now in the camp of Carl Swenlin and believe we will hit a 9 month cycle low sometime in December. There is now a greater possibility that we will retest the February and August lows. As the chart shows we were not able to make a higher high recently and have now made a lower low by taking out October's low. Click on the Carl Swenlin link above to take you to his most recent interview.
Labels: major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Turn Around Tuesday?
I'm looking for some kind of a bigger bounce off the support area this market is trying to establish. A gap down on Tuesday with steady buying all day would be the ticket. Some kind of bullish piercing candle formation is what I'm looking for. The past 2 trading days have shown the Bulls are coming back. We've closed well above the lows of the day. Encouraging! Any breakout below 1488 is not good. I feel that a close below 1488 could lead to a retest of Feb. and Aug. lows. I'm seeing a mixed picture right now. I've started to see some positives in the Market Direction chart but, I'm still seeing bearish divergences in the Secret Recipe chart. Follow this LINK to RedDirtTrader to see all the charts that I built and watch everyday to make wise investment choices. Thanks for stopping by and please take time to vote for my charts. It doesn't really mean anything if you do, it's just an ego thing to see votes by my chartlist.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Down Week for the SP500
A down week for the SP500 but as you can see in the CHART it appears to have found support along the green band. If it happens to close below that band I feel a retest of the red support line is possible. It's possible we could make a similar pattern that is seen to the left side of the big dip from August. That's it for now I've got a big game in Stillwater tomorrow I must attend. So I'm off to bed. Good night.Labels: major indices, stockcharts, technical analysis
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