Saturday, December 22, 2007
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
This is my last post of the year! It's been a tough one on me. I'll still beat the S&P 500 for the 7th straight year but not nearly by as much of a percentage as in the past. (From July 2002-June 2007 my return was 58%/year). My positioning toward growth and tech stocks helped this year. I also was whipsawed, as most everyone was, a few times by the volatility in the market. Just remember as the volatility increases look to shorter time frame charts. But always keep an EYE on the Big Picture! Thanks to everyone that stopped by and viewed a few charts or left a comment. I'm sticking by my first post on this blog to continue to learn as much as possible about technical analysis and help you do the same. The Charts Do Not Lie! Just in case you haven't noticed I love to leverage my bets in the market. I encourage everyone else to do the same. But first you must concentrate on one market. I don't care if it's Wheat or Soybeans or OATS or the S&P. Just try to get really good at trading "1" market. I actually hate individual stocks. I'd rather trade a basket with some leverage. I sleep better that way. I'm still long this market and plan to stay that way until the S&P500 hits 2030.
No, the picture on this post isn't of me. That's my buddy Wayne of the FlamingLips. I snapped the picture from his OKC ZOO concert. He will perform live new year's eve in downtown OKC. My wife and our college student children will attend while I'm watching my Insight Bowl. I'm looking forward to next year and wish everyone the best. A special thanks goes out to Gary @ Between the Hedges & bxcapricorn from The Fine Art of Money for all the feedback. Keep up the good work guys.
See ya,
Chris
Friday, December 21, 2007
BRIC Perfchart
The Russian portion of the BRIC TRADE has recently started to pick up a bit. With a 25% weighting this should help BIK's uptrend to accelerate. "IF" all else continues to perform well. CLICK HERE for a better look at the BIK chart @ Red Dirt Trader Charts.Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Update
As this latest shake-out continues to unfold it makes it easy to place bets with very little at risk. As I see it the gap and the neckline are there for support and the upside takes us back to the June highs. The one thing I really want to see is the ChiOsc make a lower low and the support hold up. That would tell me, and all the Sovereign Funds, that we bought at a good level. If this works out all those who have bailed out will get a chance to buy at a much higher ask. If I'm wrong, oh well, it was worth the risk.Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, technical analysis
Monday, December 17, 2007
The Best Call on This Market I've Seen?
Sunday, December 16, 2007
As the Spring Coils
A look at the charts shows the last 3 minutes of Fridays trade took out the hammer bottom on the 60 minute chart. We must now look to the daily support levels. The close Friday was near the bottom of the 29 day trading band but just above the most recent sell fractal at 1460. If you follow the blog you will know that I've posted about the gap in the chart. The gap on the daily, 60 and 1 minute charts is screaming. Look for support at that level. I've noticed over the past several years that the most recognized chart patterns are beginning to mutate into new formations. The old Head & Shoulders is becoming the Two Headed Monster. Catch the drift? Because of that I'm going to draw in the most important trend line on the daily chart. It will reflect the NECKLINE of the 2HEADEDMONSTER. It will be colored PURPLE and if it is broken I will be a BEAR. DAILY CHART
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Long Term Trend Weekly SP500 Chart
WOW! By looking at the 60 minute and the 1 minute chart I've missed out on some really good trades while my power was out. But the trend is still up according to the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The power outage was a blessing in disguise. IT allowed me time to study and to prepare the daily chart for what I feel will help in my decision making. The updated indicators along with the tried and true trading channels really cleaned up the daily chart. What I've done is establish a better feel for the "smart" money flow into and out of the market. Also, I've added straight line support and resistance levels using trading channels at degrees of importance. By looking at the daily candle for 12/12/2007 you can see the indecision in the market. The 60 minute chart formed a hammer on the last candle Wednesday which is encouraging although it is below the 35 period channel on the chart. So, watch the bottom of that last candle from Wednesday on the 60 minute chart and use that level as support. That's all for now. Oh yea, I'm still 66% long this market. The other 34% is still drawing 6%/yr. and probably(hopefully) always will be. I'll be busy the next couple of days due to the ice storm so posting here will be limited.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Electricity is ON
We were lucky this time around. The power outage where we live only lasted about a day. Unlike the last major ice storm several years back, we froze our asses off for nearly 6 days. OG&E along with crews from several other states are doing a great job trying to restore power. Those guys out working in this stuff are deserving of great big "THANK YOU" from everyone effected by this storm.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Everyone should get a 2nd Chance!
Any close below last years high should be a wake-up call.
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, technical analysis
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Sometimes Gaps Get Left
The gap on the 60 minute candle chart never got tested for support. I really expected it to happen early last Monday morning but it did not materialize. Instead, early last week the profit taking that started when the market touched 1489 continued but found support quickly along the 35 period ema trading band about the same time it crossed the 140 period ma. That led to a test of the neckline on the Reverse H&S pattern which was easily put in the rear view mirror on Thursday. The old Bull/Bear war zone of 1490 is behind us now, once again look for that area to provide support. If so, expect the target price off the reverse H&S pattern to get hit very soon. Gary over at Between the Hedges as been saying he expects the "Mother of all Short-covering rallies" to materialize. I tend to agree and believe it may have already started. Thanks for stopping by and you can check out my stockcharts.com public list at RedDirtTraderCharts .
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Saturday, December 8, 2007
45 degrees W.D. Gann
In case any of you were keeping count here is something that might interest the market participants. From the most recent top to the most recent bottom was exactly 45 calendar days! The highest high to the lowest low!
W.D Gann Article from the Wall Street Journal
What W.D. Ganns Grandson has to say.
W.D Gann Article from the Wall Street Journal
What W.D. Ganns Grandson has to say.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
BRIC Performance Chart
HERE is a look at the BRIC(Brazil,Russia,India,China) performance chart. It can also be found @ Red Dirt Trader Charts chart #35. Here is a related article on BRIC ETF's . According to that article the BKF has the weighting right. The only problem is, it just started trading and if I were to use it for my chart there just isn't enough data for a good read. But as you can tell by using the BIK the underweight position in India has really caused the overall performance of that ETF to suck when compared to the individual country ETF's.(Excluding Russia,RSX) Anyhow, when selecting an ETF I like to look at average daily volume for liquidity and tighter spreads between the bid/ask. The BRIC Trend Indicator(BTI) will be my secret for now. Enjoy watching the new charts. #34 and #35 @ RedDirtTraderCharts and thanks for stopping by.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, growth stocks, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
BRIC Carry Trade
I'm building a new chart. This one should help me with my trades in the Brazil, Russia, India and China ETF's. One can also trade all four countries at the same time by using the symbol BIK. This is a work in progress so please be patient. I will continue to build some indicators that should (hopefully) provide early signals to trend reversals. I'm sure this CHART #34 at RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS looks kind of confusing, don't worry, it should soon start to make some sense. There is less than 6 months of chart data for the BIK at this time and normally it takes me a full year of study on new charts before I really start to trust what I see. That may be one of my biggest faults or one of my best attributes. I was however born in MIZZOU so "SHOW ME" maybe I'll believe it. This new chart pushed the old 3-Line Break chart for the SP500 off the list. We don't really need it anyway, we've got the WEEKLY and the MONTHLY charts for the SP500, that should be enough. Anyway back to that Mizzou thing, I can't help that I was born there, that wasn't up to me. Nor, can I help the fact that I was raised in ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK LAND . But it was by my decision that I have lived my adult life in COWBOY COUNTRY . Now the question is, Will I retire and be laid to rest here in Okiehoma? About a year ago I e-mailed the Governor of this great State and told him if things don't change I'd be taking myself and my retirement fund to AR-KANSAS as LES MILES called it. Our fine Governator responded by freezing the Property Taxes of retired Okies. Now that's what I call a good start. Think I should e-mail him again and see if they can do something about personal income tax for us soon to be fixed(LOL) income old folks. I got nothing else to do, what the hell, here it goes.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Tested the 1490
Just as I posted the 1490 area was tested and Fridays failure to punch through that level, along with a not so strong reversal candle pattern on the daily chart for this recent bottom, would lead me to believe the bottom is still forming. I would expect a pullback to the 1430-1438 area sometime this week. We may break above the 1490 just to trap some late bulls. If so we should expect resistance at the 1498-1511 area. If a breakout occurs above the 1490 level look to see if it holds as support. If not, look for a modest pullback to the gap on the 60 minute chart from the open last Wednesday. Most of the corrections of this bull market have not been V-bottoms. Normally a W-pattern has formed or in one case an inverted head and shoulders pattern. I'll have one eye on the 60 minute chart and one eye on the 1 minute chart all of this week. With all the market moving news expected the next 5 days, it sets up for some scalping.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Study This
Here are the latest results of my GARP Scan. (GARP=Growth at a Reasonable Price) Since this weeks recent run up some of the names that were on the last scan have disappeared. No wonder, with the recent gains. This new list is shorter and some very interesting stocks are still on the list and some very interesting new stocks have shown up. I'll update the chart list @ RedDirtTraderCharts to reflect the current stocks on the list. Any of the stocks from the old list that have dropped off will be moved away from public viewing. You can always pull up the earlier list and build your own charts for viewing @ http://stockcharts.com/. So here it is, just click this link http://reddirttrader.googlepages.com/garpscanstocks to see the new list of GARP Stocks.
Labels: growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts, technical analysis
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