Wednesday, August 20, 2008
RedDirts BricTrade Update
The candlestick pattern your looking at is what is known as an abandoned baby. If you click on the chart for the China ETF, symbol=FXI you will see this pattern has developed over the past three days. The pattern is confirmed by looking at the Historic Price Quotes at stockcharts.com.........I just had to make sure the shadows of the doji were totally isolated from the Monday lows and the Wednesday lows. So there it is, an abandoned baby reversal pattern. I wish my BRAIN could recall the success rate of this candle pattern. I recently read an article in S&C Magazine that gave the stats on success rates of several candle reversal patterns. Of course I can't locate the article when I need it. But, here is what I'll do. I'll buy an opening position of say 100 shares in the FXI and set a Stop-Loss Order just below the low of that abandoned baby doji. I would like to get filled somewhere below the close on Wednesday and somewhere above the top of the abandoned baby doji. So it looks as though I'll have to place a limit order to try and get filled in that space. This trade is supported by what I'm seeing in all the BRIC trade charts including the Hong Kong Option Index. ($HKO) India actually appears to be a buy at this time also. Brazil and Russia seem to have made some kind of bottom. I think within' this past week or so, there have been some agreements made among the BRIC countries and the USA. Looks as though the best trade could be long China and USA to the detriment of Brazil, Russia and India. But, as I see it, invest in growth in the US and China and look to find some sort REIT investment in Brazil. Look for an infrastructure investment in Russia to go with this trade. I think the best India trade may have something to do with technology (SAY) or I'll just buy a small portion of INP.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, growth stocks, major indices, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis
Sunday, March 30, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
We are now one trading day away from the SP500 closing the month lower for the 5th consecutive time. I can't tell you when, or even if, this has ever happened before. The Weekly Chart is trying to tell me we are due for a bounce back to the 1380 area. But who knows for sure, we're in uncharted territory. Bear Market's suck for most people because they just haven't learned what to do and when to do it. A good monthly chart for most Index buy and holders is a good place to start. I can't complain, my 401k is beating the SP500 by 15 percentage points YTD. Whoever said you can't time the market is a FOOL!The Nasdaq 100 looks to be showing signs of a pulse. Week before last the weekly chart pulled off a bullish engulfing candle. Then, this past week we traded at a higher high. That's NICE! I ran a new GARP SCAN this week and was surprised to see how many tech stocks showed up on the new list. It seems there is a pent up demand for high quality tech stocks and at the same time a decrease in supply. This could lead to a nice surprise to the upside for old name tech stocks.
This past week I finally completed the BRIC Trade Page and what a relief that was. Check it out to see the bullish divergence that has developed. I'll have to keep watching the individual Bric Country ETF's for a clear buy setup before getting involved once again.
I will continue to work on the GREEN TRADE. But for now the ETF of choice is PBW.
As for the MooseTrade. Bill says to stay cash for another week. I would recommend reading Moosecalls every time it updates for some very interesting commentary from Bill Dirlam.
Now for this weeks trading lesson. Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to PLAN!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500
Thursday, January 17, 2008
CAPITULATION
Have we witnessed true capitulation in the $NDX. I believe so. The breaking of the trend line and the most volume for a single day in years. Seems so weird to see this happen so close to recent highs and nearly 38% Fibonacci Retracement level above 2002 lows but it has happened. Thank God. Now for some really big gains. I warned of the SPINNING TOP on 11/02/2007 and laid out several support area's for a bottom. It now appears one of the major resistance area's will soon be the new support. QID up about $13 since November 2nd.
Labels: candlestick charts, growth stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Update
As this latest shake-out continues to unfold it makes it easy to place bets with very little at risk. As I see it the gap and the neckline are there for support and the upside takes us back to the June highs. The one thing I really want to see is the ChiOsc make a lower low and the support hold up. That would tell me, and all the Sovereign Funds, that we bought at a good level. If this works out all those who have bailed out will get a chance to buy at a much higher ask. If I'm wrong, oh well, it was worth the risk.Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, technical analysis
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Everyone should get a 2nd Chance!
Any close below last years high should be a wake-up call.
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, technical analysis
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Sometimes Gaps Get Left
The gap on the 60 minute candle chart never got tested for support. I really expected it to happen early last Monday morning but it did not materialize. Instead, early last week the profit taking that started when the market touched 1489 continued but found support quickly along the 35 period ema trading band about the same time it crossed the 140 period ma. That led to a test of the neckline on the Reverse H&S pattern which was easily put in the rear view mirror on Thursday. The old Bull/Bear war zone of 1490 is behind us now, once again look for that area to provide support. If so, expect the target price off the reverse H&S pattern to get hit very soon. Gary over at Between the Hedges as been saying he expects the "Mother of all Short-covering rallies" to materialize. I tend to agree and believe it may have already started. Thanks for stopping by and you can check out my stockcharts.com public list at RedDirtTraderCharts .
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Added an old chart to my Public List @ Stockcharts.com
The chart to the left is a new addition to Red Dirt Trader Charts. It appears to me we are now in the 3rd and final wave of the unwinding of the carry trade. I've watched this chart for sometime now but just decided today to make it public.
As we enter the final hour of trading today the S&P is down 11 points and the percent of stocks trading above their 50 day ma is @ 18%. That would put the number below 100 on the Secret Recipe Chart. I'm putting money back to work in chunks. I feel like the upside potential from here out-weighs the risk. We are so close to the support trend lines on chart #11 for the daily S&P 500 that this seems like a good buying opportunity.
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Friday, November 9, 2007
Check out the $NDX(click here for updated chart)
Last Friday I added a comment to the weekly $NDX chart. The support areas are no longer valid as they have moved as the price has moved. So we now look to old resistance to see if new support tries to form in that area. If not look to old support. If all else fails just watch this CHART which led me to make this earlier POST .
Labels: major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Market Makes a U-turn on Wednesday
The S&P 500 closed below the long term trading band today and also the building support area around 1488 was violated. I'm now in the camp of Carl Swenlin and believe we will hit a 9 month cycle low sometime in December. There is now a greater possibility that we will retest the February and August lows. As the chart shows we were not able to make a higher high recently and have now made a lower low by taking out October's low. Click on the Carl Swenlin link above to take you to his most recent interview.
Labels: major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Down Week for the SP500
A down week for the SP500 but as you can see in the CHART it appears to have found support along the green band. If it happens to close below that band I feel a retest of the red support line is possible. It's possible we could make a similar pattern that is seen to the left side of the big dip from August. That's it for now I've got a big game in Stillwater tomorrow I must attend. So I'm off to bed. Good night.Labels: major indices, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Secret Recipe Chart
This chart is an overlay of the number of S&P500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average(GREEN) & the number of S&P500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average.(RED) What I have observed in this bull market is, when the $spxa50 is below 100 and the $spxa200 is below 250 it has been a good time to buy the S&P500. When I begin to see bearish divergences between the price and the indicator it has been a good time to scale back. Click on this LINK or click on the chart above for a better view. The one thing that is starting to worry me about this indicator is deeper moves downward with both the $SPXA50 and the $SPXA200 and the amount of time it takes them to recover. I'm hoping it just has something to do with a major sector rotation and not the big boy's getting prepared for the worst(Recession). Here's to hoping it keeps working because it has offered up some very nice returns in the past few years.
Labels: major indices, stockcharts, technical analysis
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Bearish Candle Pattern for Nasdaq100
Click on the image of the chart to the left to view it, or follow this link Nasdaq100 to take you to my chart book for Red Dirt Trader . If you click the Red Dirt Trader link look for chart 21. While you're there check out the 1st page of charts for the S&P500. Page 2 is all about the Nasdaq100. Page 3 and beyond takes a look at some other charts of interest. I'm trying to integrate the blog with my public chart list at Stockcharts.com to make an easy transition for my readers to follow along with what I'm seeing in the charts.
Thanks for stopping by.
Labels: bearish engulfing, major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
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