Wednesday, August 20, 2008
RedDirts BricTrade Update
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, growth stocks, major indices, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
RedDirt's BricTrade Update
Now for step #2. The Hong Kong Options Index CHART was just me stumbling across something that I felt would help out when trying to determine market turns. So far it's been working. It's not much different than using the $CPEC(call/put ratio) for an indicator on the $SPX. In fact, it's been working well enough to make it my #1 chart when trying to determine positive or negative divergences.
Last but not least, step #3. When I feel really uncomfortable about going long, I look at that individual chart and determine do I place a market order, place a buy stop just above some nearby resistance or just enter a limit order to try to get filled at some sort of nearby support level. Experience tells me the best order to place is when nearby resistance is violated. I usually get filled about 7 cents above that level. Usually that price is just above the nearest Buy Fractal or the Gator moving averages. ((Visit http://profitunity.com/ for an explanation of Fractals and Gator ma's.)) It could also be just above a bullish reversal candle stick such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Here's a little update on the S&P500. As of the market close July 9th, 2008 we are just 1.6% above the 2006 lows which I feel is a very important support level. We are only 5.6% above the really big support level of 1176 neckline of the reverse Head & Shoulder pattern from the last great Bear Market. If you look at the Monthly Chart and the Weekly Chart you will clearly see the support levels I'm talking about.
There will be no RedDirt's Weekly Update this coming Sunday. Sorry to say, I'm turning 47 on Saturday so I'll be recovering from 18 holes of golf and possibly a hangover. Not to mention I'm also scheduled to work Sunday.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Monday, June 23, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update

The DecisionMoose stays in $CASH another week. By reading the MooseCall the past couple of weeks it sounds like Bill is being bombarded with e-mails about adding another asset class to the program. Everybody always wants to hold some position in the market. Why is it traders can't realize that being flat the market is a "position". Mr. Dirlam I don't know if you read this blog, but here's a toast to you for sticking by your guns.
The updated GarpScan can be seen by clicking HERE. Twenty stocks made the cut. I haven't had time to analyze the list yet to see what's new on the list or what has dropped out. My first glance of the list 3 stocks really popped out to me. It was like a BricTrade jumped off the page and hit me in the face. WBD is a Russia trade, SAY is a India trade and STP is a China trade. The only thing that didn't stick out to me was a Brazil trade. I'm sure it's probably there I just haven't discovered it yet.
Speaking of BricTrade. Chart #38 on my list, as you all know, is one of my favorites. As I mentioned in Friday's BricTrade Update this is only the 6th time in the past 5 years that the %K and the %D have fell below the 20 line for the Stochastic indicator on the $HKO chart. The only Bullish divergence that I'm seeing is the $HKO couldn't manage to make a lower low even though the EEB did. Could this be a good sign? Like I said in Friday's post,"I'd rather catch the caboose than get ran over by the engine, when this train finally leaves the station."
Thanks for stopping by to see what old RedDirt has been up to and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis, weekly update
Friday, June 20, 2008
BricTrade Update!
Click on the image to the left and read the note about the Stochastic indicator or click HERE to open the Hong Kong Option Index Chart in a new window. If you have been following along with my BricTrade, you know how closely the EEB tracks the $HKO:$USD ratio chart. The reason for this post is that all the individual BRIC country ETF's are signalling stochastic buys but my favorite indicator for the EEB is saying,"hold your horses." I know this train is going to leave the station one day and I'd rather catch the caboose than get ran over by the engine. After back testing my chart indicators this is the 1st time since the EEB has been trading that the %D on the $HKO has dropped below 20. It is only the 6th time in 5 years that this has occurred for the Hong Kong options index. For the investor it's probably a good buying opportunity, for the trader, why get ran over by the engine if you can catch the caboose.Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis
Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Thursday, June 12, 2008
BRIC NEWS
China Is Nowhere Close to Victory on Inflation: Andy Mukherjee
China plans to increase its wind energy
Labels: BRIC ETF's, RedDirts BRIC Trade
Sunday, June 8, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
My vacation is about to end so it's time I get back to work. This weekly update will start with a look at the BricTrade. Since my last post I was stopped out of the EEB trade. My favorite indicator for the BricTrade, The HongKong Option Index , is once again in oversold territory according to the stochastic. The past two weeks haven't been kind to the individual BRIC country ETF's as India has led the decline with a drop of 7.42%, China fell 5.36%, Brazil dropped 2.72% while the strength of the group was Russia posting a 1.89% loss. Bloomberg reported that Citigroup strategist Geoffrey Dennis is predicting a 10% drop for the Brazilian market. Brazil and Russia have recently outperformed the EEB whereas China and India have underperformed. This may all be about to change. India is trading at about a 50% discount to where it was in early 2008. I'll be looking for some sort of reversal candle now that the INP is trading near a level of support on the chart. Wouldn't it be great to see a Hammer candlestick with high volume as the INP test support?Now for a look at our markets. The Weekly S&P500 chart stopped it's drop at the center line of the Bollinger band. This weekly drop came with higher than average volume and the Daily Chart has once again closed below it's trading bands and the 65 day moving average. Looks as though the "next shoe" may be about to drop. I'm looking at the inverted ETF's for a trade.
The DecisionMoose posted by William Dirlam has continued to stay CASH for sometime now. I really don't see a switch coming anytime soon. Click HERE to see the latest Moosecall. Don't forget to click the refresh button on your browser to make sure the info is timely.
I'll be running the GarpStocks Scan later today. So you can click this LINK to see the most recent list. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Friday, May 9, 2008
$HKO Stochastic Warning
Stochastic sell signal for the $HKO. The trendline and the gator moving averages for the EEB have not been violated, yet. I'll move up my trailing stop to $51.42 to lock in a profit.Labels: BRIC ETF's, RedDirts BRIC Trade
Sunday, May 4, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
This week I'll start out once again with a look at the SP500 weekly chart. The market appears to have found it's way to the resistance area that I mentioned in my April 20th post. A pull back to the low end of the trading band (1377) would not at all surprise me. Considering the oscillating indicators on the weekly and daily charts are in over bought territory. I think we could see a little push higher to start the week then, like a door being slammed in your face, the party's over for now. I would have to see a breakout above 1440 along with high volume to convince me otherwise.Now let's take a look at the BricTrade. Since the late March StochRSI buy signal on the BIK and the Stochastic buy signal for the EEB on the $HKO chart, we've seen a nice run up on both charts. Since March 26 the FXI(China) has led the way with a 24.5% gain. Followed by EWZ(Brazil) with a gain of 17.88%. Next would be INP(India) with a run of 12.23%. Last but not least is RSX(Russia) with a gain of 8.58%. As I mentioned in a previous post on April 20th, the RSX drew some attention due to the fact it was in a strong resistance area at that time. This gap resistance has limited the gain for RSX for the past 3 weeks. It now looks to me the technicals have corrected and it will soon make another attempt to break out above the gap resistance area. Does BRIC stop growing just because the USA isn't?
Wow!!! Some of the GreenTrade Stocks have rocketed to the sky lately. BWEN(formerly known as TWRT) is my personal favorite due to the fact I first took a position in this stock because it showed up on my Flat Base Breakout (FBB) scan. This was even before Jeffrey Gendell bought in. Now talk about a boost in your confidence for holding a trade. Seeing a GURU jump on board doesn't hurt.
For the latest MooseCall click HERE and hit the refresh button on your browser.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, green trade, sp500
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
BricTrade Update
Sunday, April 20, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
I'll start out this week with a look at the SP500 Daily Chart. You'll notice the rally off the JAN and MAR lows have come on decreased volume. Very similar to the bottoming action of the 2002-2003 bear market end. The market closed above both the 29 day trading band and the 65 day trading band. Resistance as I see it would be the center line of the 360 degree trading channel and the upper band on the Weekly Chart. That would mean I'm expecting strong resistance in the 1416-1426 area. Of course the FEB 1st high of 1396 would need to get taken out first. Another bright spot on both the $SPX and $NDX is that I see crossover buys for the PPO on both weekly charts.As for the BricTrade. The $HKO is still in a uptrend after breaking out from the bullish divergence formation. This Article explains all 3 classes of divergences and is a must read! I prefer to use the RSI and StochRSI for oscillators when detecting divergence. That explains the overlay of the 2 indicators on most of my charts. Brazil has shown the most strength of the four individual Bric country ETF's and EEB is the leader on the BricETF Perfchart. Brazil and Russia are in mark-up phases on their charts. While India and China are in accumulation phases. The phases and chart formations are explained in this article buy Chuck Dukas. $RSX(Russia) warrants special attention at this time due to the fact it is in the Gap Area left from the start of it's downtrend. More on trading gaps at a later time.
Now for the Moosecall. Still no update at the time of this post. But, when we do get a switch it appears it will be to ILF. Click the Moosecall link later today and hit refresh on your browser to catch the latest from William Dirlam.
I can't leave you without a little something to study. So, along with the article about the 3 classes of divergence, here are a few articles of interest on a particular trend indicator. Article #1 , Article #2 & related terms , Article #3.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Saturday, April 5, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
This week I'll start out by taking a look at the action in this past weeks BricTrade. The $HKO:$USD ratio chart (click here) is a strong contender for trade opportunities in the EEB solely off buy and sell signals on the Stochastic.For the week we see that EEB led the other BRIC ETF's with a 7.22% gain. While the winner for the week among the individual country ETF's was EWZ with a gain of 8.89%. On Tuesday we saw trend line breakouts above the gator moving averages for both EWZ and FXI. RSX has made a nice recovery since it's latest stoch buy signal, whereas INP still appears to be under distribution as it closed below all moving average's and closed down -3.75% for the week.
Now for a look at the Weekly SP500 chart. As I was expecting we saw that bounce to 1380 this past week. It finally got touched on Friday as evident here on the 60 minute chart. Now for the hard part. Where does it head from here? My view would be that a sideways consolidation would be nice but that may just be wishful thinking. What I'll really be watching closely is any pull back to the 1335-1343 area to see if that area holds for support. I really wouldn't be surprised to see an inside week on the weekly chart. What I mean by that is last weeks high and low will not be broken this coming week. But, I'll be prepared for anything to happen by being glued to the 60 minute and 1 minute charts.
Time for a look at the DecisionMoose. Be sure to check in later this weekend for the most recent Moosecall and Moosignal. Be sure to hit refresh on your browser to see if it has updated.
If you have some extra time this week this LINK will direct you to the learning center at Barchart.com. Thanks for stopping by and good luck next week with your trades.
*Please remember nothing mentioned on this blog is a trade recommendation, the purpose of this or any other post here is to get you, the reader, interested in learning what technical analysis can do for you.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis
Sunday, March 30, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
We are now one trading day away from the SP500 closing the month lower for the 5th consecutive time. I can't tell you when, or even if, this has ever happened before. The Weekly Chart is trying to tell me we are due for a bounce back to the 1380 area. But who knows for sure, we're in uncharted territory. Bear Market's suck for most people because they just haven't learned what to do and when to do it. A good monthly chart for most Index buy and holders is a good place to start. I can't complain, my 401k is beating the SP500 by 15 percentage points YTD. Whoever said you can't time the market is a FOOL!The Nasdaq 100 looks to be showing signs of a pulse. Week before last the weekly chart pulled off a bullish engulfing candle. Then, this past week we traded at a higher high. That's NICE! I ran a new GARP SCAN this week and was surprised to see how many tech stocks showed up on the new list. It seems there is a pent up demand for high quality tech stocks and at the same time a decrease in supply. This could lead to a nice surprise to the upside for old name tech stocks.
This past week I finally completed the BRIC Trade Page and what a relief that was. Check it out to see the bullish divergence that has developed. I'll have to keep watching the individual Bric Country ETF's for a clear buy setup before getting involved once again.
I will continue to work on the GREEN TRADE. But for now the ETF of choice is PBW.
As for the MooseTrade. Bill says to stay cash for another week. I would recommend reading Moosecalls every time it updates for some very interesting commentary from Bill Dirlam.
Now for this weeks trading lesson. Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to PLAN!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500
Friday, March 28, 2008
BRIC TRADE UPDATE
I've finally put the finishing touches to my BRIC Trade charts. Click on the RedDirt's BRIC Trade Chart Page link to check it out! Please comment on any improvement's you would like to see for these ten BRIC Trade charts.Thanks for stopping by.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
BRIC Update

The BricPerfChart is showing some signs of bullish divergence. We never got to oversold territory on the stochastic in order to give me another buy signal for a trade. Volume on the BIK was also very low not a good signal. I'm sure when you look at the individual charts for BRAZIL , RUSSIA , INDIA & CHINA you must be wondering what's up with the 3 moving averages. I can't explain it all here in this post but I would strongly recommend reading THIS BOOK . You'll learn about the "GATOR" and buy & sell fractals. Some really helpful stuff when it comes to recognizing where support and resistance is. You may also be wondering why I always use Candlestick charts rather than line charts for the individual ETF's. Here are a couple of other books that I would strongly recommend. Book#1 & Book#2 . Of course you can always start out by just going to Chart School for free. I am convinced that if a trader learns to read the charts it will improve your chances of being successful. So never stop learning, read every thing you can. I have several Learn Something New links here on the left sidebar of my blog where you can click away to your hearts content.
Labels: BRIC ETF's
Saturday, March 15, 2008
WEEKLY UPDATE

There is no such thing as a quadruple top! It will be broken. This past week we closed above the hanging man on the $VIX. I would be very cautious at this point. I'm looking for a little rally Monday then a very steep sell-off to 1176 on the S&P 500. Now that we know the bottom is close, look to be holding that small long but get ready to go all out around the 1176 area on the S&P500.(I'm saying the 1270 will more than likely fail,,,Sorry) Full Moon low will be GOOD FRIDAY. All the easy money will be made at a $VIX around 40. This is just the RedDirtTrader's view by looking in the rear view mirror!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The NYSI broke it's trend line last week which tells me there is a lower low coming!
Good luck and be looking for a little bounce Monday then a REALLY good buying opportunity late this week. The stochastic started up last Monday on the BRIC TRADE so we didn't get a stoch buy signal. This has me waiting on the sidelines. By looking at the individual charts the EWZ and RSX look to be the strongest at this time. That makes sense. Raw materials and commodities you know!
As for the DECISIONMOOSE I think there will be a switch to cash coming very soon. His program may say to hold GLD for another week, but I'm thinking I would be looking to take a profit here.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck next week!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, sp500
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Weekly Update

I'll be working on my RedDirtTrader charts this week. Since most of the hits I receive here at RedDirtTrader have to do with the BRIC trade I've decided to expand on that area. I will be moving several charts from my public list to private stock lists. Gone will be the Oklahoma Charts of Interest and the Garp Scan Stocks. You can still get the most recent GARP scan results by clicking on my Google Page link. New additions will be the individual ETF's for the BRIC countries. I'm also going to expand the BlackGold:GreenGold charts. New links will include commodity and currency ETF's. With the work in progress it may mess up some of the linked charts from earlier posts. Sorry about that but I feel this is a move in the right direction.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, garp stocks
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Weekly Update
This week we'll take a look at what's going on in the BRIC Trade. Since the last buy signal off the Stochcastic I've noticed that Brazil (EWZ) started trending up first. Russia seems to be picking up steam, while India and China seem to be flopping about like fish out of water. I think India will soon realize it may be better for their markets to allow shorting of stocks by institutional investors. Sometimes as the shorts buy to cover it can provide a bit of a cushion to a falling market.The latest Moosignal calls for no switch, GLD is still a HOLD.
The GARP Spotlight this week is on ABB as they oust the CEO in order to put into place a plan for growth. T. Boone Pickens added to his position recently for whatever thats worth!
Thanks for stopping by and good luck this week!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
BRIC Performance Chart

HERE is a look at the BRIC(Brazil,Russia,India,China) performance chart. It can also be found @ Red Dirt Trader Charts chart #35. Here is a related article on BRIC ETF's . According to that article the BKF has the weighting right. The only problem is, it just started trading and if I were to use it for my chart there just isn't enough data for a good read. But as you can tell by using the BIK the underweight position in India has really caused the overall performance of that ETF to suck when compared to the individual country ETF's.(Excluding Russia,RSX) Anyhow, when selecting an ETF I like to look at average daily volume for liquidity and tighter spreads between the bid/ask. The BRIC Trend Indicator(BTI) will be my secret for now. Enjoy watching the new charts. #34 and #35 @ RedDirtTraderCharts and thanks for stopping by.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, growth stocks, stockcharts, technical analysis
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