Wednesday, August 20, 2008
RedDirts BricTrade Update
The candlestick pattern your looking at is what is known as an abandoned baby. If you click on the chart for the China ETF, symbol=FXI you will see this pattern has developed over the past three days. The pattern is confirmed by looking at the Historic Price Quotes at stockcharts.com.........I just had to make sure the shadows of the doji were totally isolated from the Monday lows and the Wednesday lows. So there it is, an abandoned baby reversal pattern. I wish my BRAIN could recall the success rate of this candle pattern. I recently read an article in S&C Magazine that gave the stats on success rates of several candle reversal patterns. Of course I can't locate the article when I need it. But, here is what I'll do. I'll buy an opening position of say 100 shares in the FXI and set a Stop-Loss Order just below the low of that abandoned baby doji. I would like to get filled somewhere below the close on Wednesday and somewhere above the top of the abandoned baby doji. So it looks as though I'll have to place a limit order to try and get filled in that space. This trade is supported by what I'm seeing in all the BRIC trade charts including the Hong Kong Option Index. ($HKO) India actually appears to be a buy at this time also. Brazil and Russia seem to have made some kind of bottom. I think within' this past week or so, there have been some agreements made among the BRIC countries and the USA. Looks as though the best trade could be long China and USA to the detriment of Brazil, Russia and India. But, as I see it, invest in growth in the US and China and look to find some sort REIT investment in Brazil. Look for an infrastructure investment in Russia to go with this trade. I think the best India trade may have something to do with technology (SAY) or I'll just buy a small portion of INP.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, growth stocks, major indices, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis
Saturday, August 2, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
This CHART shows what I interpret as being Bullish Divergence. July's low price in the $SPX managed to make a lower low than the March bottom but, of the 500 stocks in the index there was nearly double the number of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average when compared to the low for the S&P made back in March. I would expect to see a technical rally occur in the S&P that could possibly see as many as 250 or more stocks make it above their 200 day moving average.
This week Bill Dirlam posted on MARKET TIMING with DECISION MOOSE that his program tells him to continue staying in a 100% cash position. What I found humerous is he actually mentioned Jim Cramer in his Moosecall for the week. After looking at the charts I can see why Cramer is calling a bottom. After reading Bill's Moosecall I favor that this is just a bear market rally. Could this be the beginning of a new Bull Market? Who Knows. But, the next one has to start somewhere, might as well be here.
As for the BricTrade this past week, Brazil posted a gain of 2.17%. Russia somehow managed to squeeze out a 0.02% gain. India was up another 0.41% and China fell -0.29%. The commodity countries (Brazil and Russia) were hammered badly in July but China and India both had nice gains for the month. India was up 15.19% for the month and China gained 4.59% in July.
As of 09/23/2008 my Stockcharts will be history. So, my public chart list will disappear. I've decided to let my account expire and use the charts provided on Scottrade Elite. I know for a fact I'm going to miss building my very own indicators and charts but I intend to push Scottrade into continuing the improvement of the charts at their site.
My house is still on the market. CLICK HERE to take a look. If you know of anyone looking to move to the Oklahoma City area be sure to direct them to http://322cypress.blogspot.com/ . Homes here in Oklahoma didn't see the BIG run up leading into 2006 and because of that the housing market hasn't seen the BUST like some areas have. In fact home prices in Oklahoma actually increased by 4% over the past year.
Sorry about the real estate commercial. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bullish divergence, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis, weekly update
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
RedDirt's BricTrade Update
Jim Rogers stated about 1 year ago that," the Chinese market is going to correct and I hope I have the whereabouts to BUY." I saw this interview one Saturday morning on Fox Network. Well Jim, are you BUYING? The ol' RedDirt is really starting to see some evidence that this may be the time to take a serious look at the FXI(China) ETF. My BricCharts are really starting to flash some signals at me. First let's take a look at how I determine which of the BricCountry ETF's may out perform the major BricETF EEB. It's really simple. What I do is ratio each individual BricCountry ETF to the EEB as one of my indicators at the bottom of each chart for EWZ , RSX , INP and FXI. Then I look at how that ratio has performed when compared to it's 29 day simple moving average & is the ratio moving up or down. Starting to get the picture?
Now for step #2. The Hong Kong Options Index CHART was just me stumbling across something that I felt would help out when trying to determine market turns. So far it's been working. It's not much different than using the $CPEC(call/put ratio) for an indicator on the $SPX. In fact, it's been working well enough to make it my #1 chart when trying to determine positive or negative divergences.
Last but not least, step #3. When I feel really uncomfortable about going long, I look at that individual chart and determine do I place a market order, place a buy stop just above some nearby resistance or just enter a limit order to try to get filled at some sort of nearby support level. Experience tells me the best order to place is when nearby resistance is violated. I usually get filled about 7 cents above that level. Usually that price is just above the nearest Buy Fractal or the Gator moving averages. ((Visit http://profitunity.com/ for an explanation of Fractals and Gator ma's.)) It could also be just above a bullish reversal candle stick such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Here's a little update on the S&P500. As of the market close July 9th, 2008 we are just 1.6% above the 2006 lows which I feel is a very important support level. We are only 5.6% above the really big support level of 1176 neckline of the reverse Head & Shoulder pattern from the last great Bear Market. If you look at the Monthly Chart and the Weekly Chart you will clearly see the support levels I'm talking about.
There will be no RedDirt's Weekly Update this coming Sunday. Sorry to say, I'm turning 47 on Saturday so I'll be recovering from 18 holes of golf and possibly a hangover. Not to mention I'm also scheduled to work Sunday.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Now for step #2. The Hong Kong Options Index CHART was just me stumbling across something that I felt would help out when trying to determine market turns. So far it's been working. It's not much different than using the $CPEC(call/put ratio) for an indicator on the $SPX. In fact, it's been working well enough to make it my #1 chart when trying to determine positive or negative divergences.
Last but not least, step #3. When I feel really uncomfortable about going long, I look at that individual chart and determine do I place a market order, place a buy stop just above some nearby resistance or just enter a limit order to try to get filled at some sort of nearby support level. Experience tells me the best order to place is when nearby resistance is violated. I usually get filled about 7 cents above that level. Usually that price is just above the nearest Buy Fractal or the Gator moving averages. ((Visit http://profitunity.com/ for an explanation of Fractals and Gator ma's.)) It could also be just above a bullish reversal candle stick such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Here's a little update on the S&P500. As of the market close July 9th, 2008 we are just 1.6% above the 2006 lows which I feel is a very important support level. We are only 5.6% above the really big support level of 1176 neckline of the reverse Head & Shoulder pattern from the last great Bear Market. If you look at the Monthly Chart and the Weekly Chart you will clearly see the support levels I'm talking about.
There will be no RedDirt's Weekly Update this coming Sunday. Sorry to say, I'm turning 47 on Saturday so I'll be recovering from 18 holes of golf and possibly a hangover. Not to mention I'm also scheduled to work Sunday.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Sunday, July 6, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Since this is a weekly update lets take a look at the WEEKLY SP500 CHART. The thing about this chart that really stands out is the lower lows in the price and the higher lows for the RSI. Wouldn't you consider this to be bullish. Now all we need is a catalyst to turn the market up and confirm the big bullish divergence in the weekly chart. The 2006 lows are a major support level and the 50% retracement level(1172) coincides with the neckline(1176) of the last great bear market. Can the market become even more oversold? The Monthly Chart has the Williams%R at -96. This tells me we are at the most oversold level this market has seen in the past 22 years. Damn, maybe it's time to start buying. And yet it may be time to hide the women and children, because the big bad bear may not be done devouring the bull's. What can we look for to see if this market is about to make a turn. How about GE's earnings report this Friday. Now if they can just beat the street as badly as they missed last quarter, this bell weather could take the lead and get the market's headed back up. I think I'll go see what Bill Dirlam has to say on his latest MooseCall. I'll be updating the GarpScan early this week looking for some bargain basement buys. Be sure to check back in to see what shows up. I'm also keeping a close watch on the BRICTRADE charts to let me know when the timing is just right to go long.Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, weekly update
Sunday, June 29, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Can the ECB fight inflation by not raising their rate? If they were to keep rates where they are or even make a cut, it could help strenghten the $USD which in turn would lower commodity prices and at the same time help out a little to combat sluggish growth in Europe. Click Here to read a story published by the president of the Czech Republic that tells why the ECB is in a pickle.The Moosecall is to stay in cash for yet another week. Bill says there is no need to jump in front of a dump truck and I agree. What a mess that would be.
As for the BricTrade. There are some bullish divergences trying to build but no clear buy signal yet on the Charts. I'm watching chart #38 closely. It will let me know when it's time to buy.
Our market's took a big hit this past week with the Dow closing below the January and March lows. The S&P is at its lows hit earlier this year and the Nasdaq has now retraced a chunk of the move up from it's March low but on Friday managed to make a somewhat bullish looking candle on the daily chart. If we're going to have a W bottom in the chart for the SP500 now is the time it needs to start working its way higher. Take a look at the charts HERE.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Monday, June 23, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
The DecisionMoose stays in $CASH another week. By reading the MooseCall the past couple of weeks it sounds like Bill is being bombarded with e-mails about adding another asset class to the program. Everybody always wants to hold some position in the market. Why is it traders can't realize that being flat the market is a "position". Mr. Dirlam I don't know if you read this blog, but here's a toast to you for sticking by your guns.
The updated GarpScan can be seen by clicking HERE. Twenty stocks made the cut. I haven't had time to analyze the list yet to see what's new on the list or what has dropped out. My first glance of the list 3 stocks really popped out to me. It was like a BricTrade jumped off the page and hit me in the face. WBD is a Russia trade, SAY is a India trade and STP is a China trade. The only thing that didn't stick out to me was a Brazil trade. I'm sure it's probably there I just haven't discovered it yet.
Speaking of BricTrade. Chart #38 on my list, as you all know, is one of my favorites. As I mentioned in Friday's BricTrade Update this is only the 6th time in the past 5 years that the %K and the %D have fell below the 20 line for the Stochastic indicator on the $HKO chart. The only Bullish divergence that I'm seeing is the $HKO couldn't manage to make a lower low even though the EEB did. Could this be a good sign? Like I said in Friday's post,"I'd rather catch the caboose than get ran over by the engine, when this train finally leaves the station."
Thanks for stopping by to see what old RedDirt has been up to and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis, weekly update
Friday, June 20, 2008
BricTrade Update!
Click on the image to the left and read the note about the Stochastic indicator or click HERE to open the Hong Kong Option Index Chart in a new window. If you have been following along with my BricTrade, you know how closely the EEB tracks the $HKO:$USD ratio chart. The reason for this post is that all the individual BRIC country ETF's are signalling stochastic buys but my favorite indicator for the EEB is saying,"hold your horses." I know this train is going to leave the station one day and I'd rather catch the caboose than get ran over by the engine. After back testing my chart indicators this is the 1st time since the EEB has been trading that the %D on the $HKO has dropped below 20. It is only the 6th time in 5 years that this has occurred for the Hong Kong options index. For the investor it's probably a good buying opportunity, for the trader, why get ran over by the engine if you can catch the caboose.Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis
Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Thursday, June 12, 2008
BRIC NEWS
India Rate Rise Means BRICs to Suffer in Price Fight
China Is Nowhere Close to Victory on Inflation: Andy Mukherjee
China plans to increase its wind energy
China Is Nowhere Close to Victory on Inflation: Andy Mukherjee
China plans to increase its wind energy
Labels: BRIC ETF's, RedDirts BRIC Trade
Sunday, June 8, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
My vacation is about to end so it's time I get back to work. This weekly update will start with a look at the BricTrade. Since my last post I was stopped out of the EEB trade. My favorite indicator for the BricTrade, The HongKong Option Index , is once again in oversold territory according to the stochastic. The past two weeks haven't been kind to the individual BRIC country ETF's as India has led the decline with a drop of 7.42%, China fell 5.36%, Brazil dropped 2.72% while the strength of the group was Russia posting a 1.89% loss. Bloomberg reported that Citigroup strategist Geoffrey Dennis is predicting a 10% drop for the Brazilian market. Brazil and Russia have recently outperformed the EEB whereas China and India have underperformed. This may all be about to change. India is trading at about a 50% discount to where it was in early 2008. I'll be looking for some sort of reversal candle now that the INP is trading near a level of support on the chart. Wouldn't it be great to see a Hammer candlestick with high volume as the INP test support?Now for a look at our markets. The Weekly S&P500 chart stopped it's drop at the center line of the Bollinger band. This weekly drop came with higher than average volume and the Daily Chart has once again closed below it's trading bands and the 65 day moving average. Looks as though the "next shoe" may be about to drop. I'm looking at the inverted ETF's for a trade.
The DecisionMoose posted by William Dirlam has continued to stay CASH for sometime now. I really don't see a switch coming anytime soon. Click HERE to see the latest Moosecall. Don't forget to click the refresh button on your browser to make sure the info is timely.
I'll be running the GarpStocks Scan later today. So you can click this LINK to see the most recent list. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Saturday, May 24, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Better late than never, better early than late. The Bear's bite came this week into a long weekend Holiday. The Monthly Chart tells me we could revisit the bottom Bollinger Band. The Weekly Chart says support may have been hit at the 10 week MA's. The Daily Chart tells me to wake up if we close below the 65 day sma. The 60 Minute Candle Chart says we are over sold and should expect a bounce back to the 1390-1395 area. The 1 minute chart is saying,"Help! I've fallin' and can't get up." To sum up the market's, I'd say drop back 10 yards and punt on 3rd down. Just kidding. The longer term charts are saying the bottom is in and the second leg up is starting to develop. The break out above 1440 with volume is what will prove it. If you've read my post from Thursday May 4th, 2008 you would be amazed how important I must have thought that magic number was. Take another look at this past weeks high of 1440.24 and ask yourself, "How did Reddirt come up with this resistance?" Damn, there must be a bunch of hedge fund manager's watching the weekly Bollinger bands. Now, look up, why is 'second leg up' green text instead of black. "Well", as Ronnie(deregulation Reagan would say) "the party is just getting started." Just joking, I really don't mean to offend any of my Republican friends. The point I'm trying to make is there may be something to this elliottwave stuff. Personally, I've had more success counting waves by using 3-line break charts @ stockcharts.com . Oh My God, if your watching 3 line break charts, you really need to get a life.
The BricTrade is hanging in there so far. I moved my trailing stop up to $54 on the EEB and it came very close to taking me out of the trade on Friday. I've been getting some signal's telling me to get the Hell out of the trade but I'll take my emotions out of this and let the trend line do my work. Check out all my BricTrade Charts by clicking HERE!
Here's a LINK to what I'll be reading once again this Memorial Day Holiday. I visit it every year since 1999, just to remind me , "if a horse shoe is hot, it shouldn't take me long to figure it out."
Good luck with your trades and I'll be back in a couple of weeks.
The BricTrade is hanging in there so far. I moved my trailing stop up to $54 on the EEB and it came very close to taking me out of the trade on Friday. I've been getting some signal's telling me to get the Hell out of the trade but I'll take my emotions out of this and let the trend line do my work. Check out all my BricTrade Charts by clicking HERE!
Here's a LINK to what I'll be reading once again this Memorial Day Holiday. I visit it every year since 1999, just to remind me , "if a horse shoe is hot, it shouldn't take me long to figure it out."
Good luck with your trades and I'll be back in a couple of weeks.
Labels: RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis, weekly update
Sunday, May 18, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Was I wrong or was I early with last weeks call that the bear still has some bite left in him? Only another week tell.
Now on to the business at hand. "Multiple time frames". As you can tell by looking at my Macro to Micro time frame charts for the majors at RedDirtTraderCharts you can see that I've been trading with that mind frame for some time. Although, I never thought to write a book about it like Brian Shannon of alphatrends did. kirkreport.com reviewed the book and had some come-back questions for Mr. Shannon. Looks like he is passing the test. Basically I look at 5 time frames although depending on overall market conditions I may only be trading 3 or 4 of them.
As for what the market will do this week, your guess is as good as mine. Week before last I missed the downside on the SP500 by 7 points with my call of 1377. This past week I totally blew it with my call for another bite by the bear. So, depending on what your time frame was, last week was either good(1 minute,60minute,daily) or bad(weekly, monthly).
What I saw on the 1 minute chart late Friday tells me, I was probably early on my call.
I guess I'll have to order Brian's Book and read it for myself. I'm most interested in what his allocations are for each time frame. The longer time frame=more allocation v. shorter time frame=less allocation would be my guess.
Be sure to click on the links in the left sidebar to see what the latest updates are from the DecisionMoose, RedDirt's BricTrade, and all my other favorites.
Now on to the business at hand. "Multiple time frames". As you can tell by looking at my Macro to Micro time frame charts for the majors at RedDirtTraderCharts you can see that I've been trading with that mind frame for some time. Although, I never thought to write a book about it like Brian Shannon of alphatrends did. kirkreport.com reviewed the book and had some come-back questions for Mr. Shannon. Looks like he is passing the test. Basically I look at 5 time frames although depending on overall market conditions I may only be trading 3 or 4 of them.
As for what the market will do this week, your guess is as good as mine. Week before last I missed the downside on the SP500 by 7 points with my call of 1377. This past week I totally blew it with my call for another bite by the bear. So, depending on what your time frame was, last week was either good(1 minute,60minute,daily) or bad(weekly, monthly).
What I saw on the 1 minute chart late Friday tells me, I was probably early on my call.
I guess I'll have to order Brian's Book and read it for myself. I'm most interested in what his allocations are for each time frame. The longer time frame=more allocation v. shorter time frame=less allocation would be my guess.
Be sure to click on the links in the left sidebar to see what the latest updates are from the DecisionMoose, RedDirt's BricTrade, and all my other favorites.
Labels: decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis, weekly update
Sunday, May 11, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
The expected pull back took place this past week although it missed my target by 7 points as the low for the week was 1384.11 instead of the 1377 that I felt would be hit. Here on the Daily Chart it appears some support may be trying to build along the trend line and the 65 day trading band. I'm thinking since the candle for Friday is by no means bullish looking, the market will be headed lower for now.The past weeks BRIC trade finally saw the $RSX breakout above the gap resistance that I've been mentioning for the past few weekly updates. $RSX was up all five days last week and led the BRIC countries with a 10% gain for the week. It was followed by Brazil(EWZ) with a -0.56% loss. Then came the pain, as China and India fell -7.11% and -8.6%. The EEB remained above the trend line even as we witnessed a stochastic sell signal for the $HKO. My trailing stop will determine how much longer I'll be in this trade.
The GreenTrade stocks had some really big winners for the week, led by BWEN with a gain of 21.86% for the past week. It was followed by AMSC with a 14.41% pop and SOLF with a 13.01% gain. PBW was unchanged for the week and QCLN gained 1.82%.
The Moosignal is to stay in cash for another week. Click HERE to read the latest MooseCall by William Dirlam.
One good thing about every bear market is eventually they come to an end, for now this bear seems to have some bite left in him.
Labels: decisionmoose, growth stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Friday, May 9, 2008
$HKO Stochastic Warning
Stochastic sell signal for the $HKO. The trendline and the gator moving averages for the EEB have not been violated, yet. I'll move up my trailing stop to $51.42 to lock in a profit.Labels: BRIC ETF's, RedDirts BRIC Trade
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
BricTrade Update
Sunday, April 20, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
I'll start out this week with a look at the SP500 Daily Chart. You'll notice the rally off the JAN and MAR lows have come on decreased volume. Very similar to the bottoming action of the 2002-2003 bear market end. The market closed above both the 29 day trading band and the 65 day trading band. Resistance as I see it would be the center line of the 360 degree trading channel and the upper band on the Weekly Chart. That would mean I'm expecting strong resistance in the 1416-1426 area. Of course the FEB 1st high of 1396 would need to get taken out first. Another bright spot on both the $SPX and $NDX is that I see crossover buys for the PPO on both weekly charts.As for the BricTrade. The $HKO is still in a uptrend after breaking out from the bullish divergence formation. This Article explains all 3 classes of divergences and is a must read! I prefer to use the RSI and StochRSI for oscillators when detecting divergence. That explains the overlay of the 2 indicators on most of my charts. Brazil has shown the most strength of the four individual Bric country ETF's and EEB is the leader on the BricETF Perfchart. Brazil and Russia are in mark-up phases on their charts. While India and China are in accumulation phases. The phases and chart formations are explained in this article buy Chuck Dukas. $RSX(Russia) warrants special attention at this time due to the fact it is in the Gap Area left from the start of it's downtrend. More on trading gaps at a later time.
Now for the Moosecall. Still no update at the time of this post. But, when we do get a switch it appears it will be to ILF. Click the Moosecall link later today and hit refresh on your browser to catch the latest from William Dirlam.
I can't leave you without a little something to study. So, along with the article about the 3 classes of divergence, here are a few articles of interest on a particular trend indicator. Article #1 , Article #2 & related terms , Article #3.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Saturday, April 5, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
This week I'll start out by taking a look at the action in this past weeks BricTrade. The $HKO:$USD ratio chart (click here) is a strong contender for trade opportunities in the EEB solely off buy and sell signals on the Stochastic.For the week we see that EEB led the other BRIC ETF's with a 7.22% gain. While the winner for the week among the individual country ETF's was EWZ with a gain of 8.89%. On Tuesday we saw trend line breakouts above the gator moving averages for both EWZ and FXI. RSX has made a nice recovery since it's latest stoch buy signal, whereas INP still appears to be under distribution as it closed below all moving average's and closed down -3.75% for the week.
Now for a look at the Weekly SP500 chart. As I was expecting we saw that bounce to 1380 this past week. It finally got touched on Friday as evident here on the 60 minute chart. Now for the hard part. Where does it head from here? My view would be that a sideways consolidation would be nice but that may just be wishful thinking. What I'll really be watching closely is any pull back to the 1335-1343 area to see if that area holds for support. I really wouldn't be surprised to see an inside week on the weekly chart. What I mean by that is last weeks high and low will not be broken this coming week. But, I'll be prepared for anything to happen by being glued to the 60 minute and 1 minute charts.
Time for a look at the DecisionMoose. Be sure to check in later this weekend for the most recent Moosecall and Moosignal. Be sure to hit refresh on your browser to see if it has updated.
If you have some extra time this week this LINK will direct you to the learning center at Barchart.com. Thanks for stopping by and good luck next week with your trades.
*Please remember nothing mentioned on this blog is a trade recommendation, the purpose of this or any other post here is to get you, the reader, interested in learning what technical analysis can do for you.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis
Sunday, March 30, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
We are now one trading day away from the SP500 closing the month lower for the 5th consecutive time. I can't tell you when, or even if, this has ever happened before. The Weekly Chart is trying to tell me we are due for a bounce back to the 1380 area. But who knows for sure, we're in uncharted territory. Bear Market's suck for most people because they just haven't learned what to do and when to do it. A good monthly chart for most Index buy and holders is a good place to start. I can't complain, my 401k is beating the SP500 by 15 percentage points YTD. Whoever said you can't time the market is a FOOL!The Nasdaq 100 looks to be showing signs of a pulse. Week before last the weekly chart pulled off a bullish engulfing candle. Then, this past week we traded at a higher high. That's NICE! I ran a new GARP SCAN this week and was surprised to see how many tech stocks showed up on the new list. It seems there is a pent up demand for high quality tech stocks and at the same time a decrease in supply. This could lead to a nice surprise to the upside for old name tech stocks.
This past week I finally completed the BRIC Trade Page and what a relief that was. Check it out to see the bullish divergence that has developed. I'll have to keep watching the individual Bric Country ETF's for a clear buy setup before getting involved once again.
I will continue to work on the GREEN TRADE. But for now the ETF of choice is PBW.
As for the MooseTrade. Bill says to stay cash for another week. I would recommend reading Moosecalls every time it updates for some very interesting commentary from Bill Dirlam.
Now for this weeks trading lesson. Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to PLAN!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500
Friday, March 28, 2008
BRIC TRADE UPDATE
I've finally put the finishing touches to my BRIC Trade charts. Click on the RedDirt's BRIC Trade Chart Page link to check it out! Please comment on any improvement's you would like to see for these ten BRIC Trade charts.Thanks for stopping by.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis
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