Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Timing seems to Be Right!! RedDirtUpdate
The reverse H&S pattern neckline has been tested and the pitchfork timing seems to be aligned with that retest. This would appear to be a very good long term opportunity for investors. We even got a little bit of a bargain with the S&P 500 trading below the 1176 line and making it down to the true neckline support. Click on this link to see the true reverse head and shoulder support line. I would place a target of 1950 on the S&P 500. I've not completed my timing to that target as of yet. I believe from what I've seen so far it will be sometime in 2010. This is not trade advice, it is only the observation of the RedDirtTrader.
Labels: growth stocks, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis, trading desk, weekly update
Sunday, August 17, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
The Advance-Decline Line tells us we are still in a downtrend. The problem with this indicator is, in the past I have seen it trending lower has a small portion of the stocks in a total market will carry an Index higher. Sometimes much higher. This indicator is therefore somewhat deceiving. It could actually be trending lower and the overall market could be making higher highs. So, what to do? I would suggest not throwing this advance-decline line out. What I feel is important is to watch it along with the $vix and growth vs. value to try and determine where the action is. Just look at what Apple, Google and a few other stocks where able to do by themselves as far as moving an Index. It's the new leaders that emerge when other's begin to fail that support the whole system. Sorry, but that's just the way things are.
The latest MOOSECALL from William Dirlam is once again to stay $CASH$. Who could blame him for being conservative. It's your money he's trading not his. I would be willing to bet he is buying some positions with his own money @ these ridiculously low prices. XRX trading at 10 times earnings. GE trading at 13 times earnings. Come on, get real. Do you really think multi-nationals with products and services in BIG demand in a growing world economic expansion will not thrive over the next decade? I believe things are much better than they appear to be. Sure, big banks could fail, hedge funds could collapse, families could be booted out of their homes. But, America WILL Survive.
Now on to what I'll be working on over the next few weeks. MORE FREE CHARTS to come. I'll be working on the replacement BRIC TRADE charts. Also, I'll be adding links to my GARP SCAN stocks. Charts for every stock that shows up on the scan. You can click HERE to see all the stocks that made the most recent GARPSCAN.
Tonight I toured the area that will be affected by T. Boone Pickens Plan . The land affected is mostly wheat fields. The 35000 volt high lines will cut the town of PIEDMONT basically in half. When I drive into my little bed and breakfast community, the sign coming into town reads,"Winds of Progress". So, as I see it, if we are willing to divide this community in half to escape our dependency on foreign oil, it's worth it! Boone's plan is already in affect. There will be more GAS RIGS drilling in Oklahoma next year than any time in history! This state truly is recession proof. T.Boone supported Bush during his race to be President. Boones' support for him was based on building an Energy plan to ween us off foreign oil. Bush spent 6 years in office with a Republican Congress and NEVER made any progress. T. Boone got so "pissed off" that he said," the hell with Bush and the Saudi Bastard's, I'll do what needs to be done all by myself." He is proving, one man can make a difference. There will soon be a new ETF trading on the AMEX. The proposed symbol will be "OOK". Yes, Oklahoma is OK. The ETF will feature Oklahoma based companies, either headquartered here or having a major presence in this state. OOK has outperformed the S&P500 by over 20% each year since 2000. Of course the Index was heavily energy weighted. Things could quickly swing to technology. Wind, Switch Grass, Solar etc... I'm pretty sure the ETF will fall once it begins trading, But at some point in time it will be a great buy!
I'll soon be back to posting my normal weekly update. We'll look at one chart, study the indicator's attached to that chart, and talk about the support and resistance levels corresponding to the chart at hand.
Thanks for stopping by and Good Luck with all your trades!
Labels: decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, growth stocks, sp500, stock scans, technical analysis, weekly update
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Hard at Work
Take a look to the left side bar and you will see I'm hard at work building out some free stockcharts to keep this blog up and running. Click Here to see a sample of what life will be like RedDirtTrader Charts A.D. The 1st link which is a premium site will soon disappear. All we'll be left to work with are the tools of the free charts @ http://stockcharts.com/. I intend to help teach traders how to take advantage of just how much free information is available on the World Wide Web(www).Labels: Nasdaq 100, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Saturday, August 2, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
This CHART shows what I interpret as being Bullish Divergence. July's low price in the $SPX managed to make a lower low than the March bottom but, of the 500 stocks in the index there was nearly double the number of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average when compared to the low for the S&P made back in March. I would expect to see a technical rally occur in the S&P that could possibly see as many as 250 or more stocks make it above their 200 day moving average.
This week Bill Dirlam posted on MARKET TIMING with DECISION MOOSE that his program tells him to continue staying in a 100% cash position. What I found humerous is he actually mentioned Jim Cramer in his Moosecall for the week. After looking at the charts I can see why Cramer is calling a bottom. After reading Bill's Moosecall I favor that this is just a bear market rally. Could this be the beginning of a new Bull Market? Who Knows. But, the next one has to start somewhere, might as well be here.
As for the BricTrade this past week, Brazil posted a gain of 2.17%. Russia somehow managed to squeeze out a 0.02% gain. India was up another 0.41% and China fell -0.29%. The commodity countries (Brazil and Russia) were hammered badly in July but China and India both had nice gains for the month. India was up 15.19% for the month and China gained 4.59% in July.
As of 09/23/2008 my Stockcharts will be history. So, my public chart list will disappear. I've decided to let my account expire and use the charts provided on Scottrade Elite. I know for a fact I'm going to miss building my very own indicators and charts but I intend to push Scottrade into continuing the improvement of the charts at their site.
My house is still on the market. CLICK HERE to take a look. If you know of anyone looking to move to the Oklahoma City area be sure to direct them to http://322cypress.blogspot.com/ . Homes here in Oklahoma didn't see the BIG run up leading into 2006 and because of that the housing market hasn't seen the BUST like some areas have. In fact home prices in Oklahoma actually increased by 4% over the past year.
Sorry about the real estate commercial. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bullish divergence, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis, weekly update
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
RedDirt's BricTrade Update
Jim Rogers stated about 1 year ago that," the Chinese market is going to correct and I hope I have the whereabouts to BUY." I saw this interview one Saturday morning on Fox Network. Well Jim, are you BUYING? The ol' RedDirt is really starting to see some evidence that this may be the time to take a serious look at the FXI(China) ETF. My BricCharts are really starting to flash some signals at me. First let's take a look at how I determine which of the BricCountry ETF's may out perform the major BricETF EEB. It's really simple. What I do is ratio each individual BricCountry ETF to the EEB as one of my indicators at the bottom of each chart for EWZ , RSX , INP and FXI. Then I look at how that ratio has performed when compared to it's 29 day simple moving average & is the ratio moving up or down. Starting to get the picture?
Now for step #2. The Hong Kong Options Index CHART was just me stumbling across something that I felt would help out when trying to determine market turns. So far it's been working. It's not much different than using the $CPEC(call/put ratio) for an indicator on the $SPX. In fact, it's been working well enough to make it my #1 chart when trying to determine positive or negative divergences.
Last but not least, step #3. When I feel really uncomfortable about going long, I look at that individual chart and determine do I place a market order, place a buy stop just above some nearby resistance or just enter a limit order to try to get filled at some sort of nearby support level. Experience tells me the best order to place is when nearby resistance is violated. I usually get filled about 7 cents above that level. Usually that price is just above the nearest Buy Fractal or the Gator moving averages. ((Visit http://profitunity.com/ for an explanation of Fractals and Gator ma's.)) It could also be just above a bullish reversal candle stick such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Here's a little update on the S&P500. As of the market close July 9th, 2008 we are just 1.6% above the 2006 lows which I feel is a very important support level. We are only 5.6% above the really big support level of 1176 neckline of the reverse Head & Shoulder pattern from the last great Bear Market. If you look at the Monthly Chart and the Weekly Chart you will clearly see the support levels I'm talking about.
There will be no RedDirt's Weekly Update this coming Sunday. Sorry to say, I'm turning 47 on Saturday so I'll be recovering from 18 holes of golf and possibly a hangover. Not to mention I'm also scheduled to work Sunday.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Now for step #2. The Hong Kong Options Index CHART was just me stumbling across something that I felt would help out when trying to determine market turns. So far it's been working. It's not much different than using the $CPEC(call/put ratio) for an indicator on the $SPX. In fact, it's been working well enough to make it my #1 chart when trying to determine positive or negative divergences.
Last but not least, step #3. When I feel really uncomfortable about going long, I look at that individual chart and determine do I place a market order, place a buy stop just above some nearby resistance or just enter a limit order to try to get filled at some sort of nearby support level. Experience tells me the best order to place is when nearby resistance is violated. I usually get filled about 7 cents above that level. Usually that price is just above the nearest Buy Fractal or the Gator moving averages. ((Visit http://profitunity.com/ for an explanation of Fractals and Gator ma's.)) It could also be just above a bullish reversal candle stick such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Here's a little update on the S&P500. As of the market close July 9th, 2008 we are just 1.6% above the 2006 lows which I feel is a very important support level. We are only 5.6% above the really big support level of 1176 neckline of the reverse Head & Shoulder pattern from the last great Bear Market. If you look at the Monthly Chart and the Weekly Chart you will clearly see the support levels I'm talking about.
There will be no RedDirt's Weekly Update this coming Sunday. Sorry to say, I'm turning 47 on Saturday so I'll be recovering from 18 holes of golf and possibly a hangover. Not to mention I'm also scheduled to work Sunday.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Sunday, July 6, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Since this is a weekly update lets take a look at the WEEKLY SP500 CHART. The thing about this chart that really stands out is the lower lows in the price and the higher lows for the RSI. Wouldn't you consider this to be bullish. Now all we need is a catalyst to turn the market up and confirm the big bullish divergence in the weekly chart. The 2006 lows are a major support level and the 50% retracement level(1172) coincides with the neckline(1176) of the last great bear market. Can the market become even more oversold? The Monthly Chart has the Williams%R at -96. This tells me we are at the most oversold level this market has seen in the past 22 years. Damn, maybe it's time to start buying. And yet it may be time to hide the women and children, because the big bad bear may not be done devouring the bull's. What can we look for to see if this market is about to make a turn. How about GE's earnings report this Friday. Now if they can just beat the street as badly as they missed last quarter, this bell weather could take the lead and get the market's headed back up. I think I'll go see what Bill Dirlam has to say on his latest MooseCall. I'll be updating the GarpScan early this week looking for some bargain basement buys. Be sure to check back in to see what shows up. I'm also keeping a close watch on the BRICTRADE charts to let me know when the timing is just right to go long.Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, weekly update
Sunday, June 29, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Can the ECB fight inflation by not raising their rate? If they were to keep rates where they are or even make a cut, it could help strenghten the $USD which in turn would lower commodity prices and at the same time help out a little to combat sluggish growth in Europe. Click Here to read a story published by the president of the Czech Republic that tells why the ECB is in a pickle.The Moosecall is to stay in cash for yet another week. Bill says there is no need to jump in front of a dump truck and I agree. What a mess that would be.
As for the BricTrade. There are some bullish divergences trying to build but no clear buy signal yet on the Charts. I'm watching chart #38 closely. It will let me know when it's time to buy.
Our market's took a big hit this past week with the Dow closing below the January and March lows. The S&P is at its lows hit earlier this year and the Nasdaq has now retraced a chunk of the move up from it's March low but on Friday managed to make a somewhat bullish looking candle on the daily chart. If we're going to have a W bottom in the chart for the SP500 now is the time it needs to start working its way higher. Take a look at the charts HERE.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Friday, June 13, 2008
What makes a Market?
A buyer and a seller is what makes a market. If I've got it, and you need it or if you've got it and I need it. Market prices come down to supply and demand. If I've got it and you need it we will eventually settle on a price no matter how wide the spread at the beginning of our negotiations. This is where liquidity comes into play. If the commodity or equity has fewer participants then the spread is likely to be wide versus many suppliers and many buyers whereas the spread will be tight. If you are a newbie, keep this in mind. Start out trading only very liquid, high volume stocks or ETF's. If you want to stay with this game, take a look at something like the SPY or the QQQQ's and just learn how to trade one of those two markets. Then once you get really good at that you may want to add a little leverage by trading the profunds or futures. Keep watching page 1 and 2 and the first 5 charts on page 4 @http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID763084. All time frames monthly,weekly,daily,60 minute and 1minute charts are telling me to be short the S&P 500 right now. I'm still flat the market since coming back from vacation, but for some reason my gut tells me to keep my powder dry and only enter this market to the long side one time frame at a time. 20% increments. One fifth of my funds for each time frame. BE PATIENT! If all the big shots are having to de-leverage, where is that money going to go to work? Maybe the Spyder's and the Q's. I think this is why Buffet made a safe BET ...........
Labels: Nasdaq 100, sp500, trading desk
Sunday, June 8, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
My vacation is about to end so it's time I get back to work. This weekly update will start with a look at the BricTrade. Since my last post I was stopped out of the EEB trade. My favorite indicator for the BricTrade, The HongKong Option Index , is once again in oversold territory according to the stochastic. The past two weeks haven't been kind to the individual BRIC country ETF's as India has led the decline with a drop of 7.42%, China fell 5.36%, Brazil dropped 2.72% while the strength of the group was Russia posting a 1.89% loss. Bloomberg reported that Citigroup strategist Geoffrey Dennis is predicting a 10% drop for the Brazilian market. Brazil and Russia have recently outperformed the EEB whereas China and India have underperformed. This may all be about to change. India is trading at about a 50% discount to where it was in early 2008. I'll be looking for some sort of reversal candle now that the INP is trading near a level of support on the chart. Wouldn't it be great to see a Hammer candlestick with high volume as the INP test support?Now for a look at our markets. The Weekly S&P500 chart stopped it's drop at the center line of the Bollinger band. This weekly drop came with higher than average volume and the Daily Chart has once again closed below it's trading bands and the 65 day moving average. Looks as though the "next shoe" may be about to drop. I'm looking at the inverted ETF's for a trade.
The DecisionMoose posted by William Dirlam has continued to stay CASH for sometime now. I really don't see a switch coming anytime soon. Click HERE to see the latest Moosecall. Don't forget to click the refresh button on your browser to make sure the info is timely.
I'll be running the GarpStocks Scan later today. So you can click this LINK to see the most recent list. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Sunday, May 11, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
The expected pull back took place this past week although it missed my target by 7 points as the low for the week was 1384.11 instead of the 1377 that I felt would be hit. Here on the Daily Chart it appears some support may be trying to build along the trend line and the 65 day trading band. I'm thinking since the candle for Friday is by no means bullish looking, the market will be headed lower for now.The past weeks BRIC trade finally saw the $RSX breakout above the gap resistance that I've been mentioning for the past few weekly updates. $RSX was up all five days last week and led the BRIC countries with a 10% gain for the week. It was followed by Brazil(EWZ) with a -0.56% loss. Then came the pain, as China and India fell -7.11% and -8.6%. The EEB remained above the trend line even as we witnessed a stochastic sell signal for the $HKO. My trailing stop will determine how much longer I'll be in this trade.
The GreenTrade stocks had some really big winners for the week, led by BWEN with a gain of 21.86% for the past week. It was followed by AMSC with a 14.41% pop and SOLF with a 13.01% gain. PBW was unchanged for the week and QCLN gained 1.82%.
The Moosignal is to stay in cash for another week. Click HERE to read the latest MooseCall by William Dirlam.
One good thing about every bear market is eventually they come to an end, for now this bear seems to have some bite left in him.
Labels: decisionmoose, growth stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Sunday, May 4, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
This week I'll start out once again with a look at the SP500 weekly chart. The market appears to have found it's way to the resistance area that I mentioned in my April 20th post. A pull back to the low end of the trading band (1377) would not at all surprise me. Considering the oscillating indicators on the weekly and daily charts are in over bought territory. I think we could see a little push higher to start the week then, like a door being slammed in your face, the party's over for now. I would have to see a breakout above 1440 along with high volume to convince me otherwise.Now let's take a look at the BricTrade. Since the late March StochRSI buy signal on the BIK and the Stochastic buy signal for the EEB on the $HKO chart, we've seen a nice run up on both charts. Since March 26 the FXI(China) has led the way with a 24.5% gain. Followed by EWZ(Brazil) with a gain of 17.88%. Next would be INP(India) with a run of 12.23%. Last but not least is RSX(Russia) with a gain of 8.58%. As I mentioned in a previous post on April 20th, the RSX drew some attention due to the fact it was in a strong resistance area at that time. This gap resistance has limited the gain for RSX for the past 3 weeks. It now looks to me the technicals have corrected and it will soon make another attempt to break out above the gap resistance area. Does BRIC stop growing just because the USA isn't?
Wow!!! Some of the GreenTrade Stocks have rocketed to the sky lately. BWEN(formerly known as TWRT) is my personal favorite due to the fact I first took a position in this stock because it showed up on my Flat Base Breakout (FBB) scan. This was even before Jeffrey Gendell bought in. Now talk about a boost in your confidence for holding a trade. Seeing a GURU jump on board doesn't hurt.
For the latest MooseCall click HERE and hit the refresh button on your browser.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, green trade, sp500
Sunday, April 20, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
I'll start out this week with a look at the SP500 Daily Chart. You'll notice the rally off the JAN and MAR lows have come on decreased volume. Very similar to the bottoming action of the 2002-2003 bear market end. The market closed above both the 29 day trading band and the 65 day trading band. Resistance as I see it would be the center line of the 360 degree trading channel and the upper band on the Weekly Chart. That would mean I'm expecting strong resistance in the 1416-1426 area. Of course the FEB 1st high of 1396 would need to get taken out first. Another bright spot on both the $SPX and $NDX is that I see crossover buys for the PPO on both weekly charts.As for the BricTrade. The $HKO is still in a uptrend after breaking out from the bullish divergence formation. This Article explains all 3 classes of divergences and is a must read! I prefer to use the RSI and StochRSI for oscillators when detecting divergence. That explains the overlay of the 2 indicators on most of my charts. Brazil has shown the most strength of the four individual Bric country ETF's and EEB is the leader on the BricETF Perfchart. Brazil and Russia are in mark-up phases on their charts. While India and China are in accumulation phases. The phases and chart formations are explained in this article buy Chuck Dukas. $RSX(Russia) warrants special attention at this time due to the fact it is in the Gap Area left from the start of it's downtrend. More on trading gaps at a later time.
Now for the Moosecall. Still no update at the time of this post. But, when we do get a switch it appears it will be to ILF. Click the Moosecall link later today and hit refresh on your browser to catch the latest from William Dirlam.
I can't leave you without a little something to study. So, along with the article about the 3 classes of divergence, here are a few articles of interest on a particular trend indicator. Article #1 , Article #2 & related terms , Article #3.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Saturday, April 5, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
This week I'll start out by taking a look at the action in this past weeks BricTrade. The $HKO:$USD ratio chart (click here) is a strong contender for trade opportunities in the EEB solely off buy and sell signals on the Stochastic.For the week we see that EEB led the other BRIC ETF's with a 7.22% gain. While the winner for the week among the individual country ETF's was EWZ with a gain of 8.89%. On Tuesday we saw trend line breakouts above the gator moving averages for both EWZ and FXI. RSX has made a nice recovery since it's latest stoch buy signal, whereas INP still appears to be under distribution as it closed below all moving average's and closed down -3.75% for the week.
Now for a look at the Weekly SP500 chart. As I was expecting we saw that bounce to 1380 this past week. It finally got touched on Friday as evident here on the 60 minute chart. Now for the hard part. Where does it head from here? My view would be that a sideways consolidation would be nice but that may just be wishful thinking. What I'll really be watching closely is any pull back to the 1335-1343 area to see if that area holds for support. I really wouldn't be surprised to see an inside week on the weekly chart. What I mean by that is last weeks high and low will not be broken this coming week. But, I'll be prepared for anything to happen by being glued to the 60 minute and 1 minute charts.
Time for a look at the DecisionMoose. Be sure to check in later this weekend for the most recent Moosecall and Moosignal. Be sure to hit refresh on your browser to see if it has updated.
If you have some extra time this week this LINK will direct you to the learning center at Barchart.com. Thanks for stopping by and good luck next week with your trades.
*Please remember nothing mentioned on this blog is a trade recommendation, the purpose of this or any other post here is to get you, the reader, interested in learning what technical analysis can do for you.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis
Sunday, March 30, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
We are now one trading day away from the SP500 closing the month lower for the 5th consecutive time. I can't tell you when, or even if, this has ever happened before. The Weekly Chart is trying to tell me we are due for a bounce back to the 1380 area. But who knows for sure, we're in uncharted territory. Bear Market's suck for most people because they just haven't learned what to do and when to do it. A good monthly chart for most Index buy and holders is a good place to start. I can't complain, my 401k is beating the SP500 by 15 percentage points YTD. Whoever said you can't time the market is a FOOL!The Nasdaq 100 looks to be showing signs of a pulse. Week before last the weekly chart pulled off a bullish engulfing candle. Then, this past week we traded at a higher high. That's NICE! I ran a new GARP SCAN this week and was surprised to see how many tech stocks showed up on the new list. It seems there is a pent up demand for high quality tech stocks and at the same time a decrease in supply. This could lead to a nice surprise to the upside for old name tech stocks.
This past week I finally completed the BRIC Trade Page and what a relief that was. Check it out to see the bullish divergence that has developed. I'll have to keep watching the individual Bric Country ETF's for a clear buy setup before getting involved once again.
I will continue to work on the GREEN TRADE. But for now the ETF of choice is PBW.
As for the MooseTrade. Bill says to stay cash for another week. I would recommend reading Moosecalls every time it updates for some very interesting commentary from Bill Dirlam.
Now for this weeks trading lesson. Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to PLAN!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500
Saturday, March 15, 2008
WEEKLY UPDATE
There is no such thing as a quadruple top! It will be broken. This past week we closed above the hanging man on the $VIX. I would be very cautious at this point. I'm looking for a little rally Monday then a very steep sell-off to 1176 on the S&P 500. Now that we know the bottom is close, look to be holding that small long but get ready to go all out around the 1176 area on the S&P500.(I'm saying the 1270 will more than likely fail,,,Sorry) Full Moon low will be GOOD FRIDAY. All the easy money will be made at a $VIX around 40. This is just the RedDirtTrader's view by looking in the rear view mirror!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The NYSI broke it's trend line last week which tells me there is a lower low coming!
Good luck and be looking for a little bounce Monday then a REALLY good buying opportunity late this week. The stochastic started up last Monday on the BRIC TRADE so we didn't get a stoch buy signal. This has me waiting on the sidelines. By looking at the individual charts the EWZ and RSX look to be the strongest at this time. That makes sense. Raw materials and commodities you know!
As for the DECISIONMOOSE I think there will be a switch to cash coming very soon. His program may say to hold GLD for another week, but I'm thinking I would be looking to take a profit here.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck next week!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, sp500
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Tech Rally May Come Very Soon
If the upward moving trendline holds has support we could have a tech rally looming. I'm preparing for it. Looking to take advantage of any rally with QLD. $NDX:$SPX Chart
Labels: Nasdaq 100, sp500, technical analysis
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Weekly Update
This is one hell of a correction or the beginning of the next Bear Market. The WARNING SIGNS showed up some time ago. The reverse H&S pattern target was hit in October '07 on the WEEKLY CHART . But if you look at the bounce off the the 38% retracement line and the bounce off the lower bollinger band on the MONTHLY CHART you would think this is only a correction. I'm treating this as a bear market beginning due to the fact the charts tell me to. I've been somewhat defensive since July 2007 and the repositioning helped. My retirement fund is up for the year and so far I'm beating the S&P500 by about 6%. Carl Swenlin has some interesting comments on the markets in his latest interview. Enjoy the Super Bowl and have a great week.
Labels: candlestick charts, sp500, Super Bowl, technical analysis
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Weekly Update
By the look of last week's candle stick there appears to be indecision in the market. The upper and lower shadows are long with a small reel body squarely in the middle. The bullish signs are that the market looks to have bounced off the 38% retrace line and finished above last weeks close. The bearish signs are that we are technically in a downtrend by being below the red-green trading band. So therefore Bear Market Rules must be applied. It's at times like these when discipline must be in your bullseye. I've been hiding out in my fraidy hole and the last few days have been pretty SAFE. Just in case this is an F-6 Bear Market I've been searching for an even safer fraidy hole. Like Carmer says," there's always a bull market somewhere." This is one area that is interesting to me. I've added it to my Red Dirt Trader Charts List. It's one of the few indices that show Big money is betting on. Select the Nikkei 225 and click on "GET CHART". Be safe out there in this here storm. See ya'll next week. Thanks for stopping by.Labels: candlestick charts, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Monday, January 14, 2008
Safe Place to Hide
Finally found somewhere to hide out in my FRAIDY HOLE. Tech is going to start outperforming big time. May not be today but it's time is coming. It's testing the breakout on the RATIO CHART for support so I'm looking for some leaders to show up soon. I'm also looking at some laggard's with clean sheets. No sub-prime slime. The hardest hit clean dudes like XEROX might well be a good bet. Maybe I'm just Photo-copying my BUTT , but the last time XRX traded at this HISTORICAL level it turned out to be a 5 BAGGER. Yea, I'm talkin' $60/share down the road. July of 2016 only about 8 1/2 yrs out from now. Check out the CHART for yourself.
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, Nasdaq 100, sp500, technical analysis
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