Saturday, August 2, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
This CHART shows what I interpret as being Bullish Divergence. July's low price in the $SPX managed to make a lower low than the March bottom but, of the 500 stocks in the index there was nearly double the number of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average when compared to the low for the S&P made back in March. I would expect to see a technical rally occur in the S&P that could possibly see as many as 250 or more stocks make it above their 200 day moving average.
This week Bill Dirlam posted on MARKET TIMING with DECISION MOOSE that his program tells him to continue staying in a 100% cash position. What I found humerous is he actually mentioned Jim Cramer in his Moosecall for the week. After looking at the charts I can see why Cramer is calling a bottom. After reading Bill's Moosecall I favor that this is just a bear market rally. Could this be the beginning of a new Bull Market? Who Knows. But, the next one has to start somewhere, might as well be here.
As for the BricTrade this past week, Brazil posted a gain of 2.17%. Russia somehow managed to squeeze out a 0.02% gain. India was up another 0.41% and China fell -0.29%. The commodity countries (Brazil and Russia) were hammered badly in July but China and India both had nice gains for the month. India was up 15.19% for the month and China gained 4.59% in July.
As of 09/23/2008 my Stockcharts will be history. So, my public chart list will disappear. I've decided to let my account expire and use the charts provided on Scottrade Elite. I know for a fact I'm going to miss building my very own indicators and charts but I intend to push Scottrade into continuing the improvement of the charts at their site.
My house is still on the market. CLICK HERE to take a look. If you know of anyone looking to move to the Oklahoma City area be sure to direct them to http://322cypress.blogspot.com/ . Homes here in Oklahoma didn't see the BIG run up leading into 2006 and because of that the housing market hasn't seen the BUST like some areas have. In fact home prices in Oklahoma actually increased by 4% over the past year.
Sorry about the real estate commercial. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bullish divergence, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis, weekly update
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Nice post, and looking at the fundies, all of the stocks that I track are literally resting on their low ends (except for NE, ESV, & DO). RDC is my pick to click this week. I also like RIG, RTK and SLW at these prices. Good luck with your trades, and as always, I have my SKF hedge in place.
The crash of 2008 has been bad. I'm of course talking about my computer CRASH. I recently read where major hedge fund were taking very large positions in DUG. Of course you know this is the profunds leveraged inverse energy fund. I can also see them doing the same on the UYG which of course in the leveraged Long financials profund. I can actually see the SKF inverse fund dropping to around the $97 area. I feel pretty certain the SKF will find some major resistance in the $130 to $135 area sometime very soon. Just my thoughts after looking at the charts. We'll see how it all plays out.
The more I think about it, the less I think DUG is the place to be. Isn't there a hurricane in the Gulf? I also think this financial meltdown is just about to begin in earnest, due to European problems and the Credit Swap market. Did you read about Germany economy, and the Spanish and the UK housing markets? I spent the weekend reading the Telegraph UK, and things seem to be coming to a head out there.
My next door neighbors just returned from orange beach. They said the water was the coldest they'd ever seen. Cold water doesn't feed the big storms. Warm water does. Buy DUG when the news of the storm appears to be at it's worst. Like when it hits the coast.
I know what your thinking along the lines of the Euro's. They are weak. So play this. Sell IEV buy DUG. Watch the $usd/euro trade for an indicator. As the dollar weakens DUG goes up and IEV goes down. When the dollar goes weak against the euro the IEV goes up and DUG goes down. Think maybe I'm on to something here! seeya
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Amber
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# posted by 
: August 13, 2008 at 4:54 PM
: August 13, 2008 at 4:54 PM Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
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