Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Timing seems to Be Right!! RedDirtUpdate
The reverse H&S pattern neckline has been tested and the pitchfork timing seems to be aligned with that retest. This would appear to be a very good long term opportunity for investors. We even got a little bit of a bargain with the S&P 500 trading below the 1176 line and making it down to the true neckline support. Click on this link to see the true reverse head and shoulder support line. I would place a target of 1950 on the S&P 500. I've not completed my timing to that target as of yet. I believe from what I've seen so far it will be sometime in 2010. This is not trade advice, it is only the observation of the RedDirtTrader.
Labels: growth stocks, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis, trading desk, weekly update
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Hard at Work
Take a look to the left side bar and you will see I'm hard at work building out some free stockcharts to keep this blog up and running. Click Here to see a sample of what life will be like RedDirtTrader Charts A.D. The 1st link which is a premium site will soon disappear. All we'll be left to work with are the tools of the free charts @ http://stockcharts.com/. I intend to help teach traders how to take advantage of just how much free information is available on the World Wide Web(www).Labels: Nasdaq 100, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Saturday, August 2, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
This CHART shows what I interpret as being Bullish Divergence. July's low price in the $SPX managed to make a lower low than the March bottom but, of the 500 stocks in the index there was nearly double the number of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average when compared to the low for the S&P made back in March. I would expect to see a technical rally occur in the S&P that could possibly see as many as 250 or more stocks make it above their 200 day moving average.
This week Bill Dirlam posted on MARKET TIMING with DECISION MOOSE that his program tells him to continue staying in a 100% cash position. What I found humerous is he actually mentioned Jim Cramer in his Moosecall for the week. After looking at the charts I can see why Cramer is calling a bottom. After reading Bill's Moosecall I favor that this is just a bear market rally. Could this be the beginning of a new Bull Market? Who Knows. But, the next one has to start somewhere, might as well be here.
As for the BricTrade this past week, Brazil posted a gain of 2.17%. Russia somehow managed to squeeze out a 0.02% gain. India was up another 0.41% and China fell -0.29%. The commodity countries (Brazil and Russia) were hammered badly in July but China and India both had nice gains for the month. India was up 15.19% for the month and China gained 4.59% in July.
As of 09/23/2008 my Stockcharts will be history. So, my public chart list will disappear. I've decided to let my account expire and use the charts provided on Scottrade Elite. I know for a fact I'm going to miss building my very own indicators and charts but I intend to push Scottrade into continuing the improvement of the charts at their site.
My house is still on the market. CLICK HERE to take a look. If you know of anyone looking to move to the Oklahoma City area be sure to direct them to http://322cypress.blogspot.com/ . Homes here in Oklahoma didn't see the BIG run up leading into 2006 and because of that the housing market hasn't seen the BUST like some areas have. In fact home prices in Oklahoma actually increased by 4% over the past year.
Sorry about the real estate commercial. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bullish divergence, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis, weekly update
Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
My Latest GARP SCAN Results
ABB led off the list once again. Not because it is the best pick of the 28 Stocks to make the cut on the GARP SCAN. It's only because my results show up in alphabetical order. Although, JIM CRAMERICA now says BUY!BUY!BUY! Shit! the word is out before I could buy all I wanted. Anyway this list looks to have lots more good stocks on it that are still under the RADAR. I'll update the RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS soon to the newest GARP STOCKS LIST. SeeeeYaaaaa!!!
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Weekly Update
By the look of last week's candle stick there appears to be indecision in the market. The upper and lower shadows are long with a small reel body squarely in the middle. The bullish signs are that the market looks to have bounced off the 38% retrace line and finished above last weeks close. The bearish signs are that we are technically in a downtrend by being below the red-green trading band. So therefore Bear Market Rules must be applied. It's at times like these when discipline must be in your bullseye. I've been hiding out in my fraidy hole and the last few days have been pretty SAFE. Just in case this is an F-6 Bear Market I've been searching for an even safer fraidy hole. Like Carmer says," there's always a bull market somewhere." This is one area that is interesting to me. I've added it to my Red Dirt Trader Charts List. It's one of the few indices that show Big money is betting on. Select the Nikkei 225 and click on "GET CHART". Be safe out there in this here storm. See ya'll next week. Thanks for stopping by.Labels: candlestick charts, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Some Positive Divergence
I know this chart looks like a drowning victim, but I'm starting to see some positive divergences in it. This is not one of my public charts listed on RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS but it is one I keep a close eye on. You should be able to click on the chart for better view if your equipped with the software to do so. Sorry I can't provide a link at this time to enable you to track the movement on a daily basis. You can enter the ticker symbol at one of your favorite STOCKCHARTS sites to keep track.Labels: candlestick charts, stockcharts, technical analysis
Thursday, January 17, 2008
CAPITULATION
Have we witnessed true capitulation in the $NDX. I believe so. The breaking of the trend line and the most volume for a single day in years. Seems so weird to see this happen so close to recent highs and nearly 38% Fibonacci Retracement level above 2002 lows but it has happened. Thank God. Now for some really big gains. I warned of the SPINNING TOP on 11/02/2007 and laid out several support area's for a bottom. It now appears one of the major resistance area's will soon be the new support. QID up about $13 since November 2nd.
Labels: candlestick charts, growth stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Friday, January 4, 2008
New GARP Scan
ABB continues to show up on my GARP SCAN. Click the GARP SCAN link to see all 28 stocks that made the most recent cut. No stock on this list is a trade recommendation. It is only a list of stocks that should provide growth and, that at the time of the scan, where at a reasonable price. I'll update my RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS to include all 28 stocks of the latest scan.
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Sometimes Gaps Get Left
The gap on the 60 minute candle chart never got tested for support. I really expected it to happen early last Monday morning but it did not materialize. Instead, early last week the profit taking that started when the market touched 1489 continued but found support quickly along the 35 period ema trading band about the same time it crossed the 140 period ma. That led to a test of the neckline on the Reverse H&S pattern which was easily put in the rear view mirror on Thursday. The old Bull/Bear war zone of 1490 is behind us now, once again look for that area to provide support. If so, expect the target price off the reverse H&S pattern to get hit very soon. Gary over at Between the Hedges as been saying he expects the "Mother of all Short-covering rallies" to materialize. I tend to agree and believe it may have already started. Thanks for stopping by and you can check out my stockcharts.com public list at RedDirtTraderCharts .
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
BRIC Performance Chart
HERE is a look at the BRIC(Brazil,Russia,India,China) performance chart. It can also be found @ Red Dirt Trader Charts chart #35. Here is a related article on BRIC ETF's . According to that article the BKF has the weighting right. The only problem is, it just started trading and if I were to use it for my chart there just isn't enough data for a good read. But as you can tell by using the BIK the underweight position in India has really caused the overall performance of that ETF to suck when compared to the individual country ETF's.(Excluding Russia,RSX) Anyhow, when selecting an ETF I like to look at average daily volume for liquidity and tighter spreads between the bid/ask. The BRIC Trend Indicator(BTI) will be my secret for now. Enjoy watching the new charts. #34 and #35 @ RedDirtTraderCharts and thanks for stopping by.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, growth stocks, stockcharts, technical analysis
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Study This
Here are the latest results of my GARP Scan. (GARP=Growth at a Reasonable Price) Since this weeks recent run up some of the names that were on the last scan have disappeared. No wonder, with the recent gains. This new list is shorter and some very interesting stocks are still on the list and some very interesting new stocks have shown up. I'll update the chart list @ RedDirtTraderCharts to reflect the current stocks on the list. Any of the stocks from the old list that have dropped off will be moved away from public viewing. You can always pull up the earlier list and build your own charts for viewing @ http://stockcharts.com/. So here it is, just click this link http://reddirttrader.googlepages.com/garpscanstocks to see the new list of GARP Stocks.
Labels: growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts, technical analysis
Monday, November 26, 2007
Nearing the BOTTOM
I'm sure the capitulation day is close. Babies being thrown out with the bath water. We may still yet be a week or two from the bottom so I am 66% long this market. Up from 0% just a week ago. Just keep a very close watch on the 1400 level of the S&P 500.
Labels: candlestick charts, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Added an old chart to my Public List @ Stockcharts.com
The chart to the left is a new addition to Red Dirt Trader Charts. It appears to me we are now in the 3rd and final wave of the unwinding of the carry trade. I've watched this chart for sometime now but just decided today to make it public.
As we enter the final hour of trading today the S&P is down 11 points and the percent of stocks trading above their 50 day ma is @ 18%. That would put the number below 100 on the Secret Recipe Chart. I'm putting money back to work in chunks. I feel like the upside potential from here out-weighs the risk. We are so close to the support trend lines on chart #11 for the daily S&P 500 that this seems like a good buying opportunity.
Labels: candlestick charts, major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
GARP SCAN
It's been a couple of weeks since I last ran the GARP scan so a couple of days ago I decided to see what else may be showing up with the recent decline in the overall market. This was by and far the most stocks I'd ever seen show up in this scan. (33 stocks) Some are familiar names and some I've never heard of. I've always had trouble posting Excel spreadsheets on my blog so I built out another googlepage for a better view. I think this is much better. Just click on this LINK and once your there click on the GARP STOCKS hyperlink. I've also embedded the link to the title of this post so can just click it if you wish. Also be sure to check out the 60 minute candle chart at RED DIRT TRADER charts. We have a set up candle on the trading band.
Labels: candlestick charts, stock scans, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
GETTING DOWN TO DIRT CHEAP?
The Nasdaq 100 has under performed the S&P500 as you can tell by the chart to the left. However, we are getting very close to testing the breakout on the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart. It is now time to start looking for a reversal pattern on the Nasdaq 100 as well as some of your favorite tech stocks. Look for a hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish piercing candle with much higher than average volume for a signal that the bottom is in. HERE_ are some examples of some other reversal candle patterns. Some are stronger than others,,for example the hammer with very high volume most likely is THE Bottom. Sometimes a weaker reversal only leads to a temporary bounce (which is a playable trade) and then the downtrend continues. The SECRET RECIPE chart shows that the $SPXA50 has not yet reached my buy signal for the SP500. I'll continue to wait patiently to put some money back to work in my retirement account, which could be tomorrow, who the hell knows. I'm sure the chart will tell me when. But for now my money is drawing interest at a very low rate, still that's better than it disappearing into thin air. Be sure to check out at least the 1st four pages of charts @RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS for some insight to the market.
Labels: candlestick charts, Nasdaq 100, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Friday, November 9, 2007
Check out the $NDX(click here for updated chart)
Last Friday I added a comment to the weekly $NDX chart. The support areas are no longer valid as they have moved as the price has moved. So we now look to old resistance to see if new support tries to form in that area. If not look to old support. If all else fails just watch this CHART which led me to make this earlier POST .
Labels: major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Market Makes a U-turn on Wednesday
The S&P 500 closed below the long term trading band today and also the building support area around 1488 was violated. I'm now in the camp of Carl Swenlin and believe we will hit a 9 month cycle low sometime in December. There is now a greater possibility that we will retest the February and August lows. As the chart shows we were not able to make a higher high recently and have now made a lower low by taking out October's low. Click on the Carl Swenlin link above to take you to his most recent interview.
Labels: major indices, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Down Week for the SP500
A down week for the SP500 but as you can see in the CHART it appears to have found support along the green band. If it happens to close below that band I feel a retest of the red support line is possible. It's possible we could make a similar pattern that is seen to the left side of the big dip from August. That's it for now I've got a big game in Stillwater tomorrow I must attend. So I'm off to bed. Good night.Labels: major indices, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Secret Recipe Chart
This chart is an overlay of the number of S&P500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average(GREEN) & the number of S&P500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average.(RED) What I have observed in this bull market is, when the $spxa50 is below 100 and the $spxa200 is below 250 it has been a good time to buy the S&P500. When I begin to see bearish divergences between the price and the indicator it has been a good time to scale back. Click on this LINK or click on the chart above for a better view. The one thing that is starting to worry me about this indicator is deeper moves downward with both the $SPXA50 and the $SPXA200 and the amount of time it takes them to recover. I'm hoping it just has something to do with a major sector rotation and not the big boy's getting prepared for the worst(Recession). Here's to hoping it keeps working because it has offered up some very nice returns in the past few years.
Labels: major indices, stockcharts, technical analysis
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