Sunday, August 17, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
The Advance-Decline Line tells us we are still in a downtrend. The problem with this indicator is, in the past I have seen it trending lower has a small portion of the stocks in a total market will carry an Index higher. Sometimes much higher. This indicator is therefore somewhat deceiving. It could actually be trending lower and the overall market could be making higher highs. So, what to do? I would suggest not throwing this advance-decline line out. What I feel is important is to watch it along with the $vix and growth vs. value to try and determine where the action is. Just look at what Apple, Google and a few other stocks where able to do by themselves as far as moving an Index. It's the new leaders that emerge when other's begin to fail that support the whole system. Sorry, but that's just the way things are.
The latest MOOSECALL from William Dirlam is once again to stay $CASH$. Who could blame him for being conservative. It's your money he's trading not his. I would be willing to bet he is buying some positions with his own money @ these ridiculously low prices. XRX trading at 10 times earnings. GE trading at 13 times earnings. Come on, get real. Do you really think multi-nationals with products and services in BIG demand in a growing world economic expansion will not thrive over the next decade? I believe things are much better than they appear to be. Sure, big banks could fail, hedge funds could collapse, families could be booted out of their homes. But, America WILL Survive.
Now on to what I'll be working on over the next few weeks. MORE FREE CHARTS to come. I'll be working on the replacement BRIC TRADE charts. Also, I'll be adding links to my GARP SCAN stocks. Charts for every stock that shows up on the scan. You can click HERE to see all the stocks that made the most recent GARPSCAN.
Tonight I toured the area that will be affected by T. Boone Pickens Plan . The land affected is mostly wheat fields. The 35000 volt high lines will cut the town of PIEDMONT basically in half. When I drive into my little bed and breakfast community, the sign coming into town reads,"Winds of Progress". So, as I see it, if we are willing to divide this community in half to escape our dependency on foreign oil, it's worth it! Boone's plan is already in affect. There will be more GAS RIGS drilling in Oklahoma next year than any time in history! This state truly is recession proof. T.Boone supported Bush during his race to be President. Boones' support for him was based on building an Energy plan to ween us off foreign oil. Bush spent 6 years in office with a Republican Congress and NEVER made any progress. T. Boone got so "pissed off" that he said," the hell with Bush and the Saudi Bastard's, I'll do what needs to be done all by myself." He is proving, one man can make a difference. There will soon be a new ETF trading on the AMEX. The proposed symbol will be "OOK". Yes, Oklahoma is OK. The ETF will feature Oklahoma based companies, either headquartered here or having a major presence in this state. OOK has outperformed the S&P500 by over 20% each year since 2000. Of course the Index was heavily energy weighted. Things could quickly swing to technology. Wind, Switch Grass, Solar etc... I'm pretty sure the ETF will fall once it begins trading, But at some point in time it will be a great buy!
I'll soon be back to posting my normal weekly update. We'll look at one chart, study the indicator's attached to that chart, and talk about the support and resistance levels corresponding to the chart at hand.
Thanks for stopping by and Good Luck with all your trades!
Labels: decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, growth stocks, sp500, stock scans, technical analysis, weekly update
Monday, July 7, 2008
GarpScan UPDATE
HERE is the link to the latest GarpScan. Remember GARP stands for Growth At a Reasonable Price! Now the sad thing about this scan is only 21 companies showed up with the market oversold to the hilt. Another sad thing is I ran this scan 1 week ago(although I didn't make it public) and Buffalo Wild Wings showed up. Now it's missing. I"ll be doing my Top 25 BWLD survey within the next 2 weeks. I know this sounds a little crazy but if BWLD is expanding to area's where college football ticket sales are increasing then their sales should increase big time. Everybody likes to follow a winner and so does Buffalo Wild Wings. Old RedDirt is working day shift now so I've had to restructure may trading discipline. Instead of looking at 5 time frames I'm only looking at 3 time frames. The Daily chart, Weekly chart and Monthly charts will be my main focus. The Hourly will still capture my attention and the 1 minute chart is going to become a Ten minute chart. Keep checking back in this week for a look at my BRIC TRADE update.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans
Sunday, July 6, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Since this is a weekly update lets take a look at the WEEKLY SP500 CHART. The thing about this chart that really stands out is the lower lows in the price and the higher lows for the RSI. Wouldn't you consider this to be bullish. Now all we need is a catalyst to turn the market up and confirm the big bullish divergence in the weekly chart. The 2006 lows are a major support level and the 50% retracement level(1172) coincides with the neckline(1176) of the last great bear market. Can the market become even more oversold? The Monthly Chart has the Williams%R at -96. This tells me we are at the most oversold level this market has seen in the past 22 years. Damn, maybe it's time to start buying. And yet it may be time to hide the women and children, because the big bad bear may not be done devouring the bull's. What can we look for to see if this market is about to make a turn. How about GE's earnings report this Friday. Now if they can just beat the street as badly as they missed last quarter, this bell weather could take the lead and get the market's headed back up. I think I'll go see what Bill Dirlam has to say on his latest MooseCall. I'll be updating the GarpScan early this week looking for some bargain basement buys. Be sure to check back in to see what shows up. I'm also keeping a close watch on the BRICTRADE charts to let me know when the timing is just right to go long.Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, weekly update
Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Garp Scan Updated
The GarpScan is newly updated. This most recent scan produced a list of 17 stocks. Click Here to see the list. I've decided to stick with my orginal Garp Scan Criteria but the stocks will now be ranked by Price/Sales. The paper I received from William Dirlam at DecisionMoose.com inlightened my thinking of which stocks on my scan may provide the best returns. What to look for on the Garp List. 1)Low price/sales ratio. 2)Low debt ratio.3)Higher than industry average PE ratio. #3 may be a tough one to obtain before a mark-up phase is taking place.
My thinking leads me to believe the chart will still be the most important tool in successful GarpStocks trading. Case in point, the chart to the left for CVLT. It showed up on my May 4th, 2008 scan. It traded in a very tight range then busted out above the trading band this past week for a very good gain. Click on the chart for a better view. Unfortunately for me I didn't own the stock. Although, I did have it in one of my portfolio's for the CNBC $Million challenge. CVLT helped propel that portfolio into the top 1% for most of the week before finishing Friday in the top 2%. I normally don't enter these type of contest. The reason I entered this one is because it's always been a life long dream of mine to go to the Super Bowl. Week 10 weekly prize is Super Bowl tickets. My other portfolio's for the contest all rank anywhere from the top 12% to the top 2%.
You may also click on the post title to take you to my GarpScan google page. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, garp stocks, stock scans, Super Bowl
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
My Latest GARP SCAN Results
ABB led off the list once again. Not because it is the best pick of the 28 Stocks to make the cut on the GARP SCAN. It's only because my results show up in alphabetical order. Although, JIM CRAMERICA now says BUY!BUY!BUY! Shit! the word is out before I could buy all I wanted. Anyway this list looks to have lots more good stocks on it that are still under the RADAR. I'll update the RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS soon to the newest GARP STOCKS LIST. SeeeeYaaaaa!!!
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts
Friday, January 4, 2008
New GARP Scan
ABB continues to show up on my GARP SCAN. Click the GARP SCAN link to see all 28 stocks that made the most recent cut. No stock on this list is a trade recommendation. It is only a list of stocks that should provide growth and, that at the time of the scan, where at a reasonable price. I'll update my RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS to include all 28 stocks of the latest scan.
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Study This
Here are the latest results of my GARP Scan. (GARP=Growth at a Reasonable Price) Since this weeks recent run up some of the names that were on the last scan have disappeared. No wonder, with the recent gains. This new list is shorter and some very interesting stocks are still on the list and some very interesting new stocks have shown up. I'll update the chart list @ RedDirtTraderCharts to reflect the current stocks on the list. Any of the stocks from the old list that have dropped off will be moved away from public viewing. You can always pull up the earlier list and build your own charts for viewing @ http://stockcharts.com/. So here it is, just click this link http://reddirttrader.googlepages.com/garpscanstocks to see the new list of GARP Stocks.
Labels: growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
GARP SCAN
It's been a couple of weeks since I last ran the GARP scan so a couple of days ago I decided to see what else may be showing up with the recent decline in the overall market. This was by and far the most stocks I'd ever seen show up in this scan. (33 stocks) Some are familiar names and some I've never heard of. I've always had trouble posting Excel spreadsheets on my blog so I built out another googlepage for a better view. I think this is much better. Just click on this LINK and once your there click on the GARP STOCKS hyperlink. I've also embedded the link to the title of this post so can just click it if you wish. Also be sure to check out the 60 minute candle chart at RED DIRT TRADER charts. We have a set up candle on the trading band.
Labels: candlestick charts, stock scans, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
GARP(growth at reasonable price)
Below is a list of stocks from one of my scans(GARP). I generated this scan from the scan engine @ Scottrade. I will use this list and check for insider buying along with some other positives to narrow this list down even further. Then check the charts of those stocks to find a good entry point for a few trades.
Here is the criteria for the scan:
24 Total Company Matches
Fundamentals: PE Ratio for Next FY: 15.0x - 25.0x Fundamentals: PEG: <= 1Earnings: EPS Growth Annual CFY: 15.0% > 50.0%Earnings: EPS Growth Annual NFY: 15.0%> 50.0%Earnings: Revenue Growth Annual CFY: 15.0%> 50.0%, Earnings: Revenue Growth Annual NFY: 15.0%> 50.0%
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Symbol -Company
ABB- ABB Ltd (ADR)
AMX- America Movil S.A.B de C.V. (ADR)
AOB -American Oriental Bioengineering, Inc.
APOG -Apogee Enterprises, Inc.
ASTE- Astec Industries, Inc.
BW -Brush Engineered Material
CMRG- Casual Male Retail Group, Inc.
COH- Coach, Inc.
CBD -Companhia Brasileira de Distrib. (ADR)
DST- DST Systems, Inc.
GMXR- GMX Resources Inc.
KMGB- KMG Chemicals, Inc.
FSTR- L.B. Foster Company
MTW- Manitowoc Company, Inc.
WFR- MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc.
NOV- National-Oil...
NGS -Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.
NCIT- NCI, INC.
NIHD- NII Holdings, Inc.
RTI- RTI International Metals, Inc.
SRP -Sierra Pacific Resources
SMTS- Somanetics Corporation
SCS -Steelcase Inc.
TTEC -TeleTech Holdings, Inc.
Here is the criteria for the scan:
24 Total Company Matches
Fundamentals: PE Ratio for Next FY: 15.0x - 25.0x Fundamentals: PEG: <= 1Earnings: EPS Growth Annual CFY: 15.0% > 50.0%Earnings: EPS Growth Annual NFY: 15.0%> 50.0%Earnings: Revenue Growth Annual CFY: 15.0%> 50.0%, Earnings: Revenue Growth Annual NFY: 15.0%> 50.0%
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Symbol -Company
ABB- ABB Ltd (ADR)
AMX- America Movil S.A.B de C.V. (ADR)
AOB -American Oriental Bioengineering, Inc.
APOG -Apogee Enterprises, Inc.
ASTE- Astec Industries, Inc.
BW -Brush Engineered Material
CMRG- Casual Male Retail Group, Inc.
COH- Coach, Inc.
CBD -Companhia Brasileira de Distrib. (ADR)
DST- DST Systems, Inc.
GMXR- GMX Resources Inc.
KMGB- KMG Chemicals, Inc.
FSTR- L.B. Foster Company
MTW- Manitowoc Company, Inc.
WFR- MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc.
NOV- National-Oil...
NGS -Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.
NCIT- NCI, INC.
NIHD- NII Holdings, Inc.
RTI- RTI International Metals, Inc.
SRP -Sierra Pacific Resources
SMTS- Somanetics Corporation
SCS -Steelcase Inc.
TTEC -TeleTech Holdings, Inc.
Labels: stock scans
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