Wednesday, July 9, 2008
RedDirt's BricTrade Update
Jim Rogers stated about 1 year ago that," the Chinese market is going to correct and I hope I have the whereabouts to BUY." I saw this interview one Saturday morning on Fox Network. Well Jim, are you BUYING? The ol' RedDirt is really starting to see some evidence that this may be the time to take a serious look at the FXI(China) ETF. My BricCharts are really starting to flash some signals at me. First let's take a look at how I determine which of the BricCountry ETF's may out perform the major BricETF EEB. It's really simple. What I do is ratio each individual BricCountry ETF to the EEB as one of my indicators at the bottom of each chart for EWZ , RSX , INP and FXI. Then I look at how that ratio has performed when compared to it's 29 day simple moving average & is the ratio moving up or down. Starting to get the picture?
Now for step #2. The Hong Kong Options Index CHART was just me stumbling across something that I felt would help out when trying to determine market turns. So far it's been working. It's not much different than using the $CPEC(call/put ratio) for an indicator on the $SPX. In fact, it's been working well enough to make it my #1 chart when trying to determine positive or negative divergences.
Last but not least, step #3. When I feel really uncomfortable about going long, I look at that individual chart and determine do I place a market order, place a buy stop just above some nearby resistance or just enter a limit order to try to get filled at some sort of nearby support level. Experience tells me the best order to place is when nearby resistance is violated. I usually get filled about 7 cents above that level. Usually that price is just above the nearest Buy Fractal or the Gator moving averages. ((Visit http://profitunity.com/ for an explanation of Fractals and Gator ma's.)) It could also be just above a bullish reversal candle stick such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Here's a little update on the S&P500. As of the market close July 9th, 2008 we are just 1.6% above the 2006 lows which I feel is a very important support level. We are only 5.6% above the really big support level of 1176 neckline of the reverse Head & Shoulder pattern from the last great Bear Market. If you look at the Monthly Chart and the Weekly Chart you will clearly see the support levels I'm talking about.
There will be no RedDirt's Weekly Update this coming Sunday. Sorry to say, I'm turning 47 on Saturday so I'll be recovering from 18 holes of golf and possibly a hangover. Not to mention I'm also scheduled to work Sunday.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Now for step #2. The Hong Kong Options Index CHART was just me stumbling across something that I felt would help out when trying to determine market turns. So far it's been working. It's not much different than using the $CPEC(call/put ratio) for an indicator on the $SPX. In fact, it's been working well enough to make it my #1 chart when trying to determine positive or negative divergences.
Last but not least, step #3. When I feel really uncomfortable about going long, I look at that individual chart and determine do I place a market order, place a buy stop just above some nearby resistance or just enter a limit order to try to get filled at some sort of nearby support level. Experience tells me the best order to place is when nearby resistance is violated. I usually get filled about 7 cents above that level. Usually that price is just above the nearest Buy Fractal or the Gator moving averages. ((Visit http://profitunity.com/ for an explanation of Fractals and Gator ma's.)) It could also be just above a bullish reversal candle stick such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Here's a little update on the S&P500. As of the market close July 9th, 2008 we are just 1.6% above the 2006 lows which I feel is a very important support level. We are only 5.6% above the really big support level of 1176 neckline of the reverse Head & Shoulder pattern from the last great Bear Market. If you look at the Monthly Chart and the Weekly Chart you will clearly see the support levels I'm talking about.
There will be no RedDirt's Weekly Update this coming Sunday. Sorry to say, I'm turning 47 on Saturday so I'll be recovering from 18 holes of golf and possibly a hangover. Not to mention I'm also scheduled to work Sunday.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Bearish Candle Pattern for Nasdaq100
Click on the image of the chart to the left to view it, or follow this link Nasdaq100 to take you to my chart book for Red Dirt Trader . If you click the Red Dirt Trader link look for chart 21. While you're there check out the 1st page of charts for the S&P500. Page 2 is all about the Nasdaq100. Page 3 and beyond takes a look at some other charts of interest. I'm trying to integrate the blog with my public chart list at Stockcharts.com to make an easy transition for my readers to follow along with what I'm seeing in the charts.
Thanks for stopping by.
Labels: bearish engulfing, major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]
Subscribe in a reader
