Wednesday, January 30, 2008
NYC vs BIK vs BKF
There is no decoupling as I see it. In fact the BRIC trade mirrors very closely to the USA only with a BETA above 1. This CHART is in it's infancy. I will add indicator's to the chart in the future to try to get ahead of the top's and bottoms. We have witnessed the birth of the next bubble, it will be followed by Alternative Energy .
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
BRIC Update
I've updated the BRIC CHART to the point it started trading. The chart is a Performance Chart that shows how the BIK ETF is doing against the individual ETF's for each country included. I'm using the stochastic crossover above oversold territory to add to my position. The individual ETF's are Brazil(EWZ ), Russia(RSX ), India(INP) & China(FXI ). If this was a horse race I'd say India sprinted to a big lead at the quarter pole, but has tired early while trying to set a fast pace for the other horses in the field. Brazil and China have tried to keep pace with the favorite but are back to where they were in the gates, neck to neck. Russia has been content to stay just a little off the pace and will probably try to continue to hug the rail and then sprint to the finish for a 3 length win in the 1st leg of this Triple Crown. I'd say we're now through the 2nd furlong of the 1st race of this series. This is bound to be a long and very exciting horse racing season. Stay Tuned.Monday, January 28, 2008
iShares NYSE Composite Index (NYC)
Today I ran an ETF scan to find some quality ETF's. I used the highest Lipper Leader rating(5 on a scale of 1-5) for a 3 year basis on Total Return, Consistent Return, Preservation, Tax Efficiency & Expense. The ETF's that were able to match this criteria are NYC & VV. Then I built a PERFORMANCE CHART to compare these ETF's with the most popular ETF's.(SPY,DIA and QQQQ) What I discovered is the NYC has the highest dividend yield, the lowest PE and the best return over the past 3 1/2 years. NYC has out paced the 3 major etf's by over 16% for the period and led VV by 13%. NYC looks as though it may well be the best selection for the buy & hold type investor.Sunday, January 27, 2008
Weekly Update
By the look of last week's candle stick there appears to be indecision in the market. The upper and lower shadows are long with a small reel body squarely in the middle. The bullish signs are that the market looks to have bounced off the 38% retrace line and finished above last weeks close. The bearish signs are that we are technically in a downtrend by being below the red-green trading band. So therefore Bear Market Rules must be applied. It's at times like these when discipline must be in your bullseye. I've been hiding out in my fraidy hole and the last few days have been pretty SAFE. Just in case this is an F-6 Bear Market I've been searching for an even safer fraidy hole. Like Carmer says," there's always a bull market somewhere." This is one area that is interesting to me. I've added it to my Red Dirt Trader Charts List. It's one of the few indices that show Big money is betting on. Select the Nikkei 225 and click on "GET CHART". Be safe out there in this here storm. See ya'll next week. Thanks for stopping by.Labels: candlestick charts, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Some Positive Divergence
I know this chart looks like a drowning victim, but I'm starting to see some positive divergences in it. This is not one of my public charts listed on RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS but it is one I keep a close eye on. You should be able to click on the chart for better view if your equipped with the software to do so. Sorry I can't provide a link at this time to enable you to track the movement on a daily basis. You can enter the ticker symbol at one of your favorite STOCKCHARTS sites to keep track.Labels: candlestick charts, stockcharts, technical analysis
BLACKGOLD:GREENGOLD
I've recently reshuffled the first three pages of RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS to give my visitors a macro to micro look rather than the other way around. I'm also intoducing a new chart that I feel you all will find very simple to understand. That's it to the left of this post and click here for a better look. I believe the expectations of this trade is that foriegn traders will buy $USD and invest in USA technology and expect both to go up, of course with tech out pacing the $USD as I see it. The reason the commodity currencies are compared to a non-commodity currency is simple. As new technologies emerge we rely less on the old world commodities. I spent a lot of money to learn this. $4 on a magazine several years ago. As you can see in the chart the CannuckBuck/YEN is a very good leading indicator on BLACKGOLD and also GREENGOLD. If the worlds largest economy is going to continue to outpace the rest of the world we should start to see some major divergences between BLACK and GREEN.
Labels: growth stocks, technical analysis
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Weekly Update
Retracement levels are marked from the October 2002 low to the October 2007 high. But the line I feel we will eventually hit before a bottom is put in is the line drawn at the 2006 low. About the same time this whole sub-prime slime housing crap started to come to light. Click here for a good look at the weekly chart. Last year in May I was expecting a pullback to that area. I figured the correction would end in the Fall then a good rally back to 1500 to end the year. That never materialized. So I told my golf buddy's to exit the market after July 4th because of the warning sign I saw. Friday there seemed to be signals from our so called men in control of this situation. When Paulson said he was going to "run like a bunny" to get the bill from the House to the President for his signature, it made trader's very worried as to just how serious this situation must really be. Bernanke has made the situation worse by not taking the advice of the bond markets for some time now and lowering rates. He must think he knows something more than the collective traders around the World. Oh yea, all that inflation he's worried about. Well now we have deflation if you look at home prices and stocks. After 8 years of lies, the S&P is now lower than when Bush took the Oath, and we have a War that is causing us to lose a great number of GOOD MEN & WOMEN including to suicide upon returning home. We should have listened to IKE and put a stop to the Military-Industrial Complex. Sorry about the political rant, I just had to get some shit off my mind.
Back to the market. I'm looking for an oversold bounce next week that should last at least 45 minutes. Good Luck!!!!
Friday, January 18, 2008
Capitulation Update
We can all see by the previous post that Capitulation has now began. The question is, "HOW long will it last?" Hours, days, or months? I'll be watching this CHART closely. Take a look at Gary's Friday Watch for some interesting reads. TICKERSENSE posted some very interesting charts on the timing of earning announcement's by market cap and the number of companies reporting by date. I found these charts very interesting and think you will too.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
CAPITULATION
Have we witnessed true capitulation in the $NDX. I believe so. The breaking of the trend line and the most volume for a single day in years. Seems so weird to see this happen so close to recent highs and nearly 38% Fibonacci Retracement level above 2002 lows but it has happened. Thank God. Now for some really big gains. I warned of the SPINNING TOP on 11/02/2007 and laid out several support area's for a bottom. It now appears one of the major resistance area's will soon be the new support. QID up about $13 since November 2nd.
Labels: candlestick charts, growth stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
LATEST GARP SCAN
Monday, January 14, 2008
Safe Place to Hide
Finally found somewhere to hide out in my FRAIDY HOLE. Tech is going to start outperforming big time. May not be today but it's time is coming. It's testing the breakout on the RATIO CHART for support so I'm looking for some leaders to show up soon. I'm also looking at some laggard's with clean sheets. No sub-prime slime. The hardest hit clean dudes like XEROX might well be a good bet. Maybe I'm just Photo-copying my BUTT , but the last time XRX traded at this HISTORICAL level it turned out to be a 5 BAGGER. Yea, I'm talkin' $60/share down the road. July of 2016 only about 8 1/2 yrs out from now. Check out the CHART for yourself.
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, Nasdaq 100, sp500, technical analysis
Friday, January 11, 2008
Weekly Update
This is the first week in many years the 500 has closed below the trading band. The low of this candle is your sell signal to go short and not risk anything above the top of the band. Here's the CHART . Yes, this sucks but the chart doesn't lie. It will now take a set up above the band to get me long this index. I'm looking at 1267 for a 38% retrace level on this Index.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
S&P 500 Chart Santa Screwed Me
No Santa rally, what a bummer.The market is back to where it was when Bush got sworn in to defend the Constitution. 7 years=0% gain for the S&P 500. Now I had to stop myself out of my position in the index as the Two Headed Monster Broke It's Neck. The spring coiled and broke to the downside. It was easy, my line in the sand was crossed so I axed a trade I've been building for years. No looking back. The WARNING SIGNS showed up back in June of 2007. I'm sure that I'm now flat the market we'll get a good bounce, so I'll probably play that bounce when the time comes. I didn't get in at the very bottom and I didn't get out at the very top, but I took a big chunk out of the ride up. Now let's look at where this thing might be headed. After looking at the DAILY, WEEKLY, and MONTHLY chart my target would be the 1230 to 1270 area. Let me take a guess and call a bottom at 1261.30.... That's how I see it for now, I'm sure things will change that will make me look like a fool. But for now the line in the sand is broken and I'm looking to for a way to make some easy money pushing these buttons on the keyboard.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
BEAR
Monday, January 7, 2008
The End of the YEN Carry Trade?
Could the YCT be over? I think so. Why you ask? Here's my answer. Volumes on the forex for the USD/YEN have decreased a lot on the most recent dollar decline-yen rise. Of course I can't see all forex exchanges volume but only the one I use to trade currencies. Volume on forex is not a real dependable indicator do to that fact. Somehow, somewhere and sometime, somebody needs to get smart and consolidate the forex market. Like maybe the http://www.phlx.com/. I use a 4 hour candle stick chart for swing trades in the forex and my most recent trade went like this. On 12/27/2007 I had a sell set up on a candle that hit a high of 114.65 and a low of 113.84. My trading program sold @ 113.77 on the next candle. The trade was stopped out at 108.98 on 01/06/2008 for a 479 PIP profit. The dollar is up as of 1 am CST which should help the stock market later today if this strength should continue overnight.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Weakling Update
The close below the gap will chase a lot of "old timers" to the sidelines for now and the new Petro Dollars have another opportunity to purchase US stocks at a very reasonable price. I was actually buying yesterday. The market came to rest on my Purple line. I put my 10% back to work in XEROX for my 401k. I also opened a position in SSO for my cash account with a fill @ $77.16....SSO is about all the leverage I want at this time. Any trades that provide more leverage will have to wait until the ONE MINUTE turns around.The support area's I'm looking at for the S&P 500 are 1406,1370 and 1261. Resistance area's are as follows1419,1473,1479,1491,1552 and 1576. This type of situation doesn't come around often. The last two times things came together as they are now was at the market bottoms of 1990 and 2002. I once read that as an investor it is your job to buy the dips. Every dip.
I broke one of my most important trading rules in this post. That is to never disclose any position I hold. Long or Short. But since very few people leave comments here, I'm sure nobody will try to persuade me how bad these trades are. So, I'm safe.
Some last thoughts before I sign off, Cover any short E-mini contracts and look for the Pound to lose ground 2008. I still like Austria & Belgium for an ETF trade and of course I'll be long BRIC countries until the Summer Olympics final metal count. Look for west Texas crude to test $80/barrel for support, a 20 dollar haircut could hurt those damn terrorist. And I'll be keeping a close watch on the GARP STOCK SCAN for the next BIG ONE.
Now for my 2008 predictions:
1) The World will not come to an END
2)Jim Cramer will suffer a hernia from yelling to much
3)T. Boone Pickens will make Millions shorting oil and selling wind power and water
4)The writers strike will not end and Conan and Leno will merge with "Are you smarter than a 5th grader" to form a new show called "Are you smarter than a late night talk show host"
5)Someone will call you trying to sell you something you don't need
6)You'll buy something you don't need
7)The CBOT will begin trading Switch Grass Futures and Americans will raze their worthless homes to make room for planting more renewable fuel sources. This will cause buffalo hides to triple in price due to the number of teepees being erected.
8)Clint Eastwood will not be nominated for an OSCAR
9)Oscar will not be nominated for a CLINT EASTWOOD
and last but not least,
10)If you read this post you will leave at least one comment
Friday, January 4, 2008
New GARP Scan
ABB continues to show up on my GARP SCAN. Click the GARP SCAN link to see all 28 stocks that made the most recent cut. No stock on this list is a trade recommendation. It is only a list of stocks that should provide growth and, that at the time of the scan, where at a reasonable price. I'll update my RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS to include all 28 stocks of the latest scan.
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts
Thursday, January 3, 2008
S&P 500 Chart Update
I've taken 10% off the table (late December) from my most recent entry at 1406 and change because the market failed after breaking above the trading bands and also due to the fact the center line of the 45 time frame trading range busted below the 90 day time frame center line. People tend to forget that markets trend in 3 directions. UP, DOWN & SIDEWAYS. Both trading bands prove for now that the market is in a sideways trend. With most everything I've read predicting gloom and doom it takes a lot of guts or stupidity to stay long this market but my most recent trade is still profitable(for now). The gap in the chart provided support in December so for now I'm looking at that level for any further downside. A close below the gap will tell the old timers this market is in serious trouble.
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