Sunday, April 27, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
This past week I've spent a little time compiling a list of stocks for the GreenTrade. Some of the best companies that I ran across had either been taken over by bigger companies like Boeing, or they are still in the VC stages of development. Anyway I've added several charts to my chart list of publicly traded companies that I feel could be take over candidates. The list begins with somewhat liquid ETF's for old farts like me.
Another of my projects this week has been to evolve my GARP Scan for better timing. My original scan was developed after watching an interview with Sir John Marks Templeton. After the interview I said to myself, "Self, you can create a scan to find the companies Sir John would like." That's how the RedDirts' GARP Scan came about. My intent is to refine the scan so when it is ran, the time to buy is now, instead of floating in a pool of what appears to be dead money for weeks at a time. For instance ABB. Seems it took forever for it to breakout and finally advance. Anyway, I emailed William Dirlam of DecisionMoose.com because he seems to know a few things about timing the markets. He was kind enough to attach a file on the subject in his return email. Now I feel there will be some improvement in my scan as soon as I can enter some new criteria. I'll have to develop, test, correct and re-correct but I'll get there.
Now finally down to business. The $SPX monthly and weekly are in my NoTradeZone(NTZ). The daily is still bullish as are the 60 and 1 minute charts. So I'm still in the camp of short term trades due to the fact this is still a bear market(according to the long term charts). Check out the SP500 on Page 1 of RedDirtTrader Charts.
I'm sure your still trying to digest the difference between oscillating indicators and trending indicators so for now I'm not going to leave you with something to study this week. Other than the markets reaction to the PERFECT STORM on Wednesday. We're at the crossroads here according to the charts.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
BricTrade Update
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
GreenTrade Update
The Lonely Maytag Repairman may finally have something to do. I think he wants to retire, but he is about to find a new calling. Too bad he's not farming 6000 acres of corn. He could already be retired.Sunday, April 20, 2008
RedDirts Weekly Update
I'll start out this week with a look at the SP500 Daily Chart. You'll notice the rally off the JAN and MAR lows have come on decreased volume. Very similar to the bottoming action of the 2002-2003 bear market end. The market closed above both the 29 day trading band and the 65 day trading band. Resistance as I see it would be the center line of the 360 degree trading channel and the upper band on the Weekly Chart. That would mean I'm expecting strong resistance in the 1416-1426 area. Of course the FEB 1st high of 1396 would need to get taken out first. Another bright spot on both the $SPX and $NDX is that I see crossover buys for the PPO on both weekly charts.As for the BricTrade. The $HKO is still in a uptrend after breaking out from the bullish divergence formation. This Article explains all 3 classes of divergences and is a must read! I prefer to use the RSI and StochRSI for oscillators when detecting divergence. That explains the overlay of the 2 indicators on most of my charts. Brazil has shown the most strength of the four individual Bric country ETF's and EEB is the leader on the BricETF Perfchart. Brazil and Russia are in mark-up phases on their charts. While India and China are in accumulation phases. The phases and chart formations are explained in this article buy Chuck Dukas. $RSX(Russia) warrants special attention at this time due to the fact it is in the Gap Area left from the start of it's downtrend. More on trading gaps at a later time.
Now for the Moosecall. Still no update at the time of this post. But, when we do get a switch it appears it will be to ILF. Click the Moosecall link later today and hit refresh on your browser to catch the latest from William Dirlam.
I can't leave you without a little something to study. So, along with the article about the 3 classes of divergence, here are a few articles of interest on a particular trend indicator. Article #1 , Article #2 & related terms , Article #3.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis, weekly update
Friday, April 18, 2008
Taking Notes
Just a brief note re: Thursdays market action. I couldn't help but noticing that XLF(yes the financial sector) was the top performer for the day. Led by the $XBD(broker/dealers) and followed by the $BKX(banks). Also the $VIX broke down and closed below a long running trend line. This may well be a very good signal for the overall markets. Is the bottom in? Hard to say. Is a very opportune buy coming up? Answer is YES. We could be getting a "Buy in May and Go Away" instead of the old "Sell in May and Go Away". I'll try to get back to my weekly update this week but my schedule has been very busy. Stay patient, good things will come about.
Labels: Taking Notes
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
GreenTrade Update
T Boone Pickens is now getting the ball rolling. READ THIS Now for a few stocks that could profit nicely from the building of the World's largest wind farm. TRN , BWEN.OB , ABB , SI and GE.Labels: green trade
Saturday, April 12, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Friday, April 11, 2008
Step Up to the Window and Place Your Bet
This is kind of like looking at the $VIX chart isn't it. Technicals say if Vegas was placing a line on this one it would probably be a pick-em. I see some late smart money coming in with a break above 50 on the StochRSI. Should not take long to figure this out if Thursday's high or low get's takin' out. SKF is in my NO-TRADE-ZONE. I'll buy a ticket , kick back and watch this this fight till' the death.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
This week I'll start out by taking a look at the action in this past weeks BricTrade. The $HKO:$USD ratio chart (click here) is a strong contender for trade opportunities in the EEB solely off buy and sell signals on the Stochastic.For the week we see that EEB led the other BRIC ETF's with a 7.22% gain. While the winner for the week among the individual country ETF's was EWZ with a gain of 8.89%. On Tuesday we saw trend line breakouts above the gator moving averages for both EWZ and FXI. RSX has made a nice recovery since it's latest stoch buy signal, whereas INP still appears to be under distribution as it closed below all moving average's and closed down -3.75% for the week.
Now for a look at the Weekly SP500 chart. As I was expecting we saw that bounce to 1380 this past week. It finally got touched on Friday as evident here on the 60 minute chart. Now for the hard part. Where does it head from here? My view would be that a sideways consolidation would be nice but that may just be wishful thinking. What I'll really be watching closely is any pull back to the 1335-1343 area to see if that area holds for support. I really wouldn't be surprised to see an inside week on the weekly chart. What I mean by that is last weeks high and low will not be broken this coming week. But, I'll be prepared for anything to happen by being glued to the 60 minute and 1 minute charts.
Time for a look at the DecisionMoose. Be sure to check in later this weekend for the most recent Moosecall and Moosignal. Be sure to hit refresh on your browser to see if it has updated.
If you have some extra time this week this LINK will direct you to the learning center at Barchart.com. Thanks for stopping by and good luck next week with your trades.
*Please remember nothing mentioned on this blog is a trade recommendation, the purpose of this or any other post here is to get you, the reader, interested in learning what technical analysis can do for you.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, technical analysis
Thursday, April 3, 2008
I Can't Explain a Spike Up Like This. SHORT IT!
What's up with all the hits on my blog? Was it my call for 1380 on my weekly update post? Or, was it some spam comment on a post that I deleted? Anyhow, I will now have to monitor each comment before I allow it to be posted. Sorry for the trouble, the only other way I can avoid spam is to take this blog private and only allow those I want to view it access. Maybe that's what I'll do.
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