Sunday, August 17, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
The Advance-Decline Line tells us we are still in a downtrend. The problem with this indicator is, in the past I have seen it trending lower has a small portion of the stocks in a total market will carry an Index higher. Sometimes much higher. This indicator is therefore somewhat deceiving. It could actually be trending lower and the overall market could be making higher highs. So, what to do? I would suggest not throwing this advance-decline line out. What I feel is important is to watch it along with the $vix and growth vs. value to try and determine where the action is. Just look at what Apple, Google and a few other stocks where able to do by themselves as far as moving an Index. It's the new leaders that emerge when other's begin to fail that support the whole system. Sorry, but that's just the way things are.
The latest MOOSECALL from William Dirlam is once again to stay $CASH$. Who could blame him for being conservative. It's your money he's trading not his. I would be willing to bet he is buying some positions with his own money @ these ridiculously low prices. XRX trading at 10 times earnings. GE trading at 13 times earnings. Come on, get real. Do you really think multi-nationals with products and services in BIG demand in a growing world economic expansion will not thrive over the next decade? I believe things are much better than they appear to be. Sure, big banks could fail, hedge funds could collapse, families could be booted out of their homes. But, America WILL Survive.
Now on to what I'll be working on over the next few weeks. MORE FREE CHARTS to come. I'll be working on the replacement BRIC TRADE charts. Also, I'll be adding links to my GARP SCAN stocks. Charts for every stock that shows up on the scan. You can click HERE to see all the stocks that made the most recent GARPSCAN.
Tonight I toured the area that will be affected by T. Boone Pickens Plan . The land affected is mostly wheat fields. The 35000 volt high lines will cut the town of PIEDMONT basically in half. When I drive into my little bed and breakfast community, the sign coming into town reads,"Winds of Progress". So, as I see it, if we are willing to divide this community in half to escape our dependency on foreign oil, it's worth it! Boone's plan is already in affect. There will be more GAS RIGS drilling in Oklahoma next year than any time in history! This state truly is recession proof. T.Boone supported Bush during his race to be President. Boones' support for him was based on building an Energy plan to ween us off foreign oil. Bush spent 6 years in office with a Republican Congress and NEVER made any progress. T. Boone got so "pissed off" that he said," the hell with Bush and the Saudi Bastard's, I'll do what needs to be done all by myself." He is proving, one man can make a difference. There will soon be a new ETF trading on the AMEX. The proposed symbol will be "OOK". Yes, Oklahoma is OK. The ETF will feature Oklahoma based companies, either headquartered here or having a major presence in this state. OOK has outperformed the S&P500 by over 20% each year since 2000. Of course the Index was heavily energy weighted. Things could quickly swing to technology. Wind, Switch Grass, Solar etc... I'm pretty sure the ETF will fall once it begins trading, But at some point in time it will be a great buy!
I'll soon be back to posting my normal weekly update. We'll look at one chart, study the indicator's attached to that chart, and talk about the support and resistance levels corresponding to the chart at hand.
Thanks for stopping by and Good Luck with all your trades!
Labels: decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, growth stocks, sp500, stock scans, technical analysis, weekly update
Monday, July 7, 2008
GarpScan UPDATE
HERE is the link to the latest GarpScan. Remember GARP stands for Growth At a Reasonable Price! Now the sad thing about this scan is only 21 companies showed up with the market oversold to the hilt. Another sad thing is I ran this scan 1 week ago(although I didn't make it public) and Buffalo Wild Wings showed up. Now it's missing. I"ll be doing my Top 25 BWLD survey within the next 2 weeks. I know this sounds a little crazy but if BWLD is expanding to area's where college football ticket sales are increasing then their sales should increase big time. Everybody likes to follow a winner and so does Buffalo Wild Wings. Old RedDirt is working day shift now so I've had to restructure may trading discipline. Instead of looking at 5 time frames I'm only looking at 3 time frames. The Daily chart, Weekly chart and Monthly charts will be my main focus. The Hourly will still capture my attention and the 1 minute chart is going to become a Ten minute chart. Keep checking back in this week for a look at my BRIC TRADE update.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades!
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans
Monday, June 23, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
The DecisionMoose stays in $CASH another week. By reading the MooseCall the past couple of weeks it sounds like Bill is being bombarded with e-mails about adding another asset class to the program. Everybody always wants to hold some position in the market. Why is it traders can't realize that being flat the market is a "position". Mr. Dirlam I don't know if you read this blog, but here's a toast to you for sticking by your guns.
The updated GarpScan can be seen by clicking HERE. Twenty stocks made the cut. I haven't had time to analyze the list yet to see what's new on the list or what has dropped out. My first glance of the list 3 stocks really popped out to me. It was like a BricTrade jumped off the page and hit me in the face. WBD is a Russia trade, SAY is a India trade and STP is a China trade. The only thing that didn't stick out to me was a Brazil trade. I'm sure it's probably there I just haven't discovered it yet.
Speaking of BricTrade. Chart #38 on my list, as you all know, is one of my favorites. As I mentioned in Friday's BricTrade Update this is only the 6th time in the past 5 years that the %K and the %D have fell below the 20 line for the Stochastic indicator on the $HKO chart. The only Bullish divergence that I'm seeing is the $HKO couldn't manage to make a lower low even though the EEB did. Could this be a good sign? Like I said in Friday's post,"I'd rather catch the caboose than get ran over by the engine, when this train finally leaves the station."
Thanks for stopping by to see what old RedDirt has been up to and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, technical analysis, weekly update
Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Sunday, June 8, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
My vacation is about to end so it's time I get back to work. This weekly update will start with a look at the BricTrade. Since my last post I was stopped out of the EEB trade. My favorite indicator for the BricTrade, The HongKong Option Index , is once again in oversold territory according to the stochastic. The past two weeks haven't been kind to the individual BRIC country ETF's as India has led the decline with a drop of 7.42%, China fell 5.36%, Brazil dropped 2.72% while the strength of the group was Russia posting a 1.89% loss. Bloomberg reported that Citigroup strategist Geoffrey Dennis is predicting a 10% drop for the Brazilian market. Brazil and Russia have recently outperformed the EEB whereas China and India have underperformed. This may all be about to change. India is trading at about a 50% discount to where it was in early 2008. I'll be looking for some sort of reversal candle now that the INP is trading near a level of support on the chart. Wouldn't it be great to see a Hammer candlestick with high volume as the INP test support?Now for a look at our markets. The Weekly S&P500 chart stopped it's drop at the center line of the Bollinger band. This weekly drop came with higher than average volume and the Daily Chart has once again closed below it's trading bands and the 65 day moving average. Looks as though the "next shoe" may be about to drop. I'm looking at the inverted ETF's for a trade.
The DecisionMoose posted by William Dirlam has continued to stay CASH for sometime now. I really don't see a switch coming anytime soon. Click HERE to see the latest Moosecall. Don't forget to click the refresh button on your browser to make sure the info is timely.
I'll be running the GarpStocks Scan later today. So you can click this LINK to see the most recent list. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, weekly update
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Garp Scan Updated
The GarpScan is newly updated. This most recent scan produced a list of 17 stocks. Click Here to see the list. I've decided to stick with my orginal Garp Scan Criteria but the stocks will now be ranked by Price/Sales. The paper I received from William Dirlam at DecisionMoose.com inlightened my thinking of which stocks on my scan may provide the best returns. What to look for on the Garp List. 1)Low price/sales ratio. 2)Low debt ratio.3)Higher than industry average PE ratio. #3 may be a tough one to obtain before a mark-up phase is taking place.
My thinking leads me to believe the chart will still be the most important tool in successful GarpStocks trading. Case in point, the chart to the left for CVLT. It showed up on my May 4th, 2008 scan. It traded in a very tight range then busted out above the trading band this past week for a very good gain. Click on the chart for a better view. Unfortunately for me I didn't own the stock. Although, I did have it in one of my portfolio's for the CNBC $Million challenge. CVLT helped propel that portfolio into the top 1% for most of the week before finishing Friday in the top 2%. I normally don't enter these type of contest. The reason I entered this one is because it's always been a life long dream of mine to go to the Super Bowl. Week 10 weekly prize is Super Bowl tickets. My other portfolio's for the contest all rank anywhere from the top 12% to the top 2%.
You may also click on the post title to take you to my GarpScan google page. Thanks for stopping by and good luck with your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, garp stocks, stock scans, Super Bowl
Sunday, March 30, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
We are now one trading day away from the SP500 closing the month lower for the 5th consecutive time. I can't tell you when, or even if, this has ever happened before. The Weekly Chart is trying to tell me we are due for a bounce back to the 1380 area. But who knows for sure, we're in uncharted territory. Bear Market's suck for most people because they just haven't learned what to do and when to do it. A good monthly chart for most Index buy and holders is a good place to start. I can't complain, my 401k is beating the SP500 by 15 percentage points YTD. Whoever said you can't time the market is a FOOL!The Nasdaq 100 looks to be showing signs of a pulse. Week before last the weekly chart pulled off a bullish engulfing candle. Then, this past week we traded at a higher high. That's NICE! I ran a new GARP SCAN this week and was surprised to see how many tech stocks showed up on the new list. It seems there is a pent up demand for high quality tech stocks and at the same time a decrease in supply. This could lead to a nice surprise to the upside for old name tech stocks.
This past week I finally completed the BRIC Trade Page and what a relief that was. Check it out to see the bullish divergence that has developed. I'll have to keep watching the individual Bric Country ETF's for a clear buy setup before getting involved once again.
I will continue to work on the GREEN TRADE. But for now the ETF of choice is PBW.
As for the MooseTrade. Bill says to stay cash for another week. I would recommend reading Moosecalls every time it updates for some very interesting commentary from Bill Dirlam.
Now for this weeks trading lesson. Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to PLAN!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks, major indices, Nasdaq 100, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Weekly Update
I'll be working on my RedDirtTrader charts this week. Since most of the hits I receive here at RedDirtTrader have to do with the BRIC trade I've decided to expand on that area. I will be moving several charts from my public list to private stock lists. Gone will be the Oklahoma Charts of Interest and the Garp Scan Stocks. You can still get the most recent GARP scan results by clicking on my Google Page link. New additions will be the individual ETF's for the BRIC countries. I'm also going to expand the BlackGold:GreenGold charts. New links will include commodity and currency ETF's. With the work in progress it may mess up some of the linked charts from earlier posts. Sorry about that but I feel this is a move in the right direction.
Labels: BRIC ETF's, garp stocks
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Weekly Update
This week we'll take a look at what's going on in the BRIC Trade. Since the last buy signal off the Stochcastic I've noticed that Brazil (EWZ) started trending up first. Russia seems to be picking up steam, while India and China seem to be flopping about like fish out of water. I think India will soon realize it may be better for their markets to allow shorting of stocks by institutional investors. Sometimes as the shorts buy to cover it can provide a bit of a cushion to a falling market.The latest Moosignal calls for no switch, GLD is still a HOLD.
The GARP Spotlight this week is on ABB as they oust the CEO in order to put into place a plan for growth. T. Boone Pickens added to his position recently for whatever thats worth!
Thanks for stopping by and good luck this week!
Labels: BRIC ETF's, decisionmoose, garp stocks
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
My Latest GARP SCAN Results
ABB led off the list once again. Not because it is the best pick of the 28 Stocks to make the cut on the GARP SCAN. It's only because my results show up in alphabetical order. Although, JIM CRAMERICA now says BUY!BUY!BUY! Shit! the word is out before I could buy all I wanted. Anyway this list looks to have lots more good stocks on it that are still under the RADAR. I'll update the RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS soon to the newest GARP STOCKS LIST. SeeeeYaaaaa!!!
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts
Monday, January 14, 2008
Safe Place to Hide
Finally found somewhere to hide out in my FRAIDY HOLE. Tech is going to start outperforming big time. May not be today but it's time is coming. It's testing the breakout on the RATIO CHART for support so I'm looking for some leaders to show up soon. I'm also looking at some laggard's with clean sheets. No sub-prime slime. The hardest hit clean dudes like XEROX might well be a good bet. Maybe I'm just Photo-copying my BUTT , but the last time XRX traded at this HISTORICAL level it turned out to be a 5 BAGGER. Yea, I'm talkin' $60/share down the road. July of 2016 only about 8 1/2 yrs out from now. Check out the CHART for yourself.
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, Nasdaq 100, sp500, technical analysis
Friday, January 4, 2008
New GARP Scan
ABB continues to show up on my GARP SCAN. Click the GARP SCAN link to see all 28 stocks that made the most recent cut. No stock on this list is a trade recommendation. It is only a list of stocks that should provide growth and, that at the time of the scan, where at a reasonable price. I'll update my RED DIRT TRADER CHARTS to include all 28 stocks of the latest scan.
Labels: garp stocks, growth stocks, stock scans, stockcharts
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