Monday, November 24, 2008
TLT v. USD
The biggest bubble nobody wants to mention. Long Term Treasuries. This Weekly Chart to the left shows how investors are bailing out of the TLT and hoarding cash. This explains the demand for dollars and the reason the Treasury can't print enough of them. Don't be fooled by only looking at the TLT with a PE of over 24. The Moosecall for the week was to stay cash even though Bill Dirlams program showed a switch to Treasuries. Damn good thing Bill has some common sense to go along with his program. Don't forget he called for a big bounce in stocks only 1 week ago. In my opinion you all should read the DecisionMoose religiously. Now if you look only at the chart for the TLT it looks like this thing is in one hell of an uptrend. But once ratioed to the $USD it shows a different story. It has the appearance of the beginning of a downtrend. Now, if I had the option of buying a Treasury with a PE of 24, or a stock trading at a PE of 5 to 8 and a dividend yield of 3% to 8%, I think I'd chose the later. I'm sure this is prime time to rebalance if nothing else.
Now for some entertainment: HERE is a list of W's best buddies.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Another RedDirt Moment
I was told last Wednesday that I would lose my job at XEROX. I don't blame myself. Millions of dollars were saved by the company with my presence. I kept close watch on my responsibilities to make sure their return of the investment they made on me paid off. It was really simple. The amount of electricity cost that I was able to save them, more than offset my wages. The simple part is I understand the refrigeration cycle. I built trend analysis data on evaporator and condenser approaches so I knew when power was being wasted. Centrifugal chillers are for the most part very efficient machines as long as water flows and heat exchange are monitored closely. All the other work I provided for them over the past 18 years, was basically free to the company. No contractors were called if I was able to fix the problem. Most of the time I had the knowledge to fix it, just didn't have the equipment to do so. That was their decision, not mine!!
Now that you've heard the "worst of times" here are what I conceive to be the "best of times". My Future!!!
I will, to the best of my ability, refuse to ever work for another corporation. I believe the most important people in my life are my family. My wife of 27 years, my son the guitar major and my daughter the french major. Yes, both of my kids are in college. I have already told them both, That's where you will stay, if Dad has his wish. I've stressed the importance to each of them to stay in school until they receive their degrees. They both have too much, of both me and their mother in them, not to succeed.
Now for the best part. Ol' RedDirt gets to roll his 401k into a self-directed IRA. I also get the opportunity to build my very own air-conditioning business. Well, sort of, I plan to buy out an existing business and build it up to it's, and mine own potential. So here we go again, starting over from scratch. Although, this time I'm just a little older. But, much wiser! I'll continue to trade, just as I did today, and day's past! I'll continue to study and become better at what I do. I will continue to post on this blog until I'm laid six foot under. That's about all I can ask of myself.
Now in case you haven't noticed, all my public stock charts are gone. So, the blog sidebar will be changing to reflect that loss. I've built out many free charts to get my point across to what I feel is important to watch. Along with those charts are many other links that I think are important to keep an eye on. So, hang around and let's just see how much more we can accomplish.
Thanks for stopping by and as always, Good Luck with all your trades!
Monday, November 3, 2008
GO VOTE AMERICA
Sunday, November 2, 2008
RedDirtTrader Update
This bloody October is finally over and thanks to a few bounces and timely buys it was actually a pretty good month for me. Friday I booked profits on my DDM trade, IXYS trade and IRE trade. I continue to hold BWEN(+57.76%) and GE(-4.26%) with plans to add to each position. I'm now at about 80% cash in my trading account. Other winning trades for the month came in the SPY,UYG, SSO. I had two unprofitable trades for the month, one was in the QQQQ and the other was SSO. So for the month my account balance grew by nearly $3000 in a month when the markets tanked. Not a single short position was entered nor any inverted ETF's were traded. I'd rather be lucky than good any day of the week. 
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