Sunday, October 4, 2009
The Moose Sticking With EPP
The Moose stays with EPP for another week. The call was made on July, 24 and since the close on that Friday, EPP is up 12.93%. I compared it to my Leveraged Moose Pick (EDC) on a PERFCHART from Stockcharts.com and found the leveraged pick hasn't faired that much better. I've set up a chartlist on Scottrade Elite using leveraged funds where I substitute a leverage ETF for the 8 Moose ETF's. I have not found a tradable leveraged fund for ILF yet. I'm only doing this to analyze whether or not I can out perform the MooseCalls. I will soon add a list of leveraged moose perfcharts to RedDirtTrader so all interested parties can compare the leveraged trade along with me. Thanks for stopping by to see what ol' RedDirt is doin'.
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Your Moose work looks good. The leveraged ETF by the time it switched was about 2:1 beta no?
I was going to look for the leveraged ETF's too and run some tests. Since you already have, could you send to me what you have found coorelate best and have liquidity? Maybe we can share some things. thx, DB
I was going to look for the leveraged ETF's too and run some tests. Since you already have, could you send to me what you have found coorelate best and have liquidity? Maybe we can share some things. thx, DB
it's me again.....
I am sure you found the 2 funds (not etf's) that are 2:1 beta to the ILF (etf)?
If you look at relative performance stretched out for past 30 days, the 2:1 ratio is pretty close for both funds. Since they are funds, prices will be the close of trading day on Monday's. Do you think that is a problem? ILF could be watched for entry/exit issues intraday for the end of day trade.
I am sure you found the 2 funds (not etf's) that are 2:1 beta to the ILF (etf)?
If you look at relative performance stretched out for past 30 days, the 2:1 ratio is pretty close for both funds. Since they are funds, prices will be the close of trading day on Monday's. Do you think that is a problem? ILF could be watched for entry/exit issues intraday for the end of day trade.
The moose is good, don't misunderstand me but if you want to "beat him" leveraged ETF's are not the way in my opinion.
I've followed him for years and it still takes some analysis on your part to be more successful.
First re: ILF, this was not a "new" signal, thus I avoid such switches, it's what I call a mid signal switch and as you may have noted EPP would have fared equal or better.
So how do you outpreform? First understand what Bill Dirlam is doing and what his goal is. His intermediate plays are fine entry points (although I usually have been able to buy lower) but I do sell sooner and although it's rarely at the high for the run it is typically higher than the moose would have sold.
his goal is to make 3-6 trades per year catching 4-8% per trade. Knowing that, selling when you've beat these figures is typically at a greater profit. Then just sit back and wait for the next "new" buy, not a mid signal buy.
Bill's model is mechanical and I am in no means putting him or his program down. He is actually one of the few that has an opinion I highly respect, as I do for Red Dirt's as well.
But if your goal is to beat him ... think less risk not more risk. Leveraged etf's don't fit that risk profile.
watch the charts, if they are over extended at the buy, avoid the trade. I did so with TLT and GLD late last year and earlier this year and thus did not take the losses on those, hey folks no one is perfect :) But what Bill does at great effort on his part and all for free, should be highly commended.
I only commented since you are looking to beat him so I thought I'd share how I've done so for about the past 4+ years since I found his site.
Happy trading all!!!
Dirk
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I've followed him for years and it still takes some analysis on your part to be more successful.
First re: ILF, this was not a "new" signal, thus I avoid such switches, it's what I call a mid signal switch and as you may have noted EPP would have fared equal or better.
So how do you outpreform? First understand what Bill Dirlam is doing and what his goal is. His intermediate plays are fine entry points (although I usually have been able to buy lower) but I do sell sooner and although it's rarely at the high for the run it is typically higher than the moose would have sold.
his goal is to make 3-6 trades per year catching 4-8% per trade. Knowing that, selling when you've beat these figures is typically at a greater profit. Then just sit back and wait for the next "new" buy, not a mid signal buy.
Bill's model is mechanical and I am in no means putting him or his program down. He is actually one of the few that has an opinion I highly respect, as I do for Red Dirt's as well.
But if your goal is to beat him ... think less risk not more risk. Leveraged etf's don't fit that risk profile.
watch the charts, if they are over extended at the buy, avoid the trade. I did so with TLT and GLD late last year and earlier this year and thus did not take the losses on those, hey folks no one is perfect :) But what Bill does at great effort on his part and all for free, should be highly commended.
I only commented since you are looking to beat him so I thought I'd share how I've done so for about the past 4+ years since I found his site.
Happy trading all!!!
Dirk
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: November 1, 2009 at 4:55 PM
: November 1, 2009 at 4:55 PM Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
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