Monday, September 29, 2008
The Warning was There. Did you Listen?
The oldest trade known to man has occurred. Sell Rosh Hashanah and buy Yom Kippur. Looks like George H.H.(Herbert Hoover) Bush gave everyone an early warning on the Jewish Holiday's. Seems as though the market bottom will be OCTOBER 9th. Look for a Hammer Candlestick on what will be known as Turn Around Thursday!!!! Everyone is looking to buy Puts for protection, I'll be pricing calls for a big bounce back into December!
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Timing seems to Be Right!! RedDirtUpdate
The reverse H&S pattern neckline has been tested and the pitchfork timing seems to be aligned with that retest. This would appear to be a very good long term opportunity for investors. We even got a little bit of a bargain with the S&P 500 trading below the 1176 line and making it down to the true neckline support. Click on this link to see the true reverse head and shoulder support line. I would place a target of 1950 on the S&P 500. I've not completed my timing to that target as of yet. I believe from what I've seen so far it will be sometime in 2010. This is not trade advice, it is only the observation of the RedDirtTrader.
Labels: growth stocks, sp500, stockcharts, technical analysis, trading desk, weekly update
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Take a Look
Take a look at this link to see the most recent Deletions and Additions to the S&P 500 index. Damn, you think these guys could pull the trigger just a little bit sooner.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Another RedDirt GarpStocks Update
Amazing just how bad this market is when GOOGLE shows up on the GarpScan. Who the hell are we kidding, trying to tell the Russians to get the heck out of Georgia. Russia and Venezuela will be exercising war games near our coast come election time. Think ol' Putin hates the Republicans. RedDirt will lay 5 to 1 on the Dem's to win this election. I'd place the over&under at 54%. Take Obama in a landslide.Enough of that political bullshit, back to what matters. Take a look at the most recent GarpScan. If you can't see the link please leave a message. This damn Mr.Softy Office 2007 has me pissed. I've had one hell of a time saving a spreadsheet has a web page and making it stick to my google pages. If anyone out there has a simple solution please pass it on to the old RedDirtTrader. I've added some links to the sidebar which shows the stocks from the last garpscan and the most recent garpscan. Whow! We can evaluate recent scans. Anyhow, I'm not saying GOOG is a buy just because it showed up on the SCAN. All that tells me is, we may be approaching some sort of a bottom. A couple of stocks that are catching my attention are IXYS and INWK. Why do I like them. 1)Price to sales below 1.5 2)Low debt to capital and 3)One is old school(INWK) and one is new(IXYS). Heathcare segment of the market has been working it's way upward in IBD. So PSYS and AFAM may have some moneyflow to push them higher. Time will tell. Anyway, finally no energy companies on the scan, so looks like their earnings downgrades are finally coming to fruition.
The CNBC fast money crew has been calling for a $VIX to hit 30 before a bottom is in. They may be right, but from what I've seen in the volume numbers the past few trading day's I doubt that will happen. Do we get a bounce here, or is this just the start of a REALLY BIG sell off. DON'T RISK ANYTHING BELOW LAST FRIDAY'S LOW!!!!!!!!!
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Wednesday, September 3, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Looks like the the MOOSE has finally made a switch!!! William Dirlam warned that all the green horned moose followers should take a step back and read the Art of the Switch. I couldn't agree more. The uptrend in bonds seems somewhat suspect to say the least. Mostly due to the fall in commodities and the lack of performance in equities, somehow the bond market is drawing some attention. Volume for the TLT is my big hang-up. Not very convincing for a great trade. But, I won't argue with the Moose diagnostics when it comes to money flows to certain asset classes. Bill's program, experience and record speak for themselves. So, WHO the hell am I to question this switch. My job is to figure out the WHEN and the WHERE to place an order to take advantage of this MOOSECALL. Is it really worth the time to to consider a trade? Maybe so, with the FED CHECK at Stand Pat and commodities trending down, could the World be taking notice that the good faith of America to pay interest on this enormous debt be real.Maybe we should take a look at the YIELD CURVE and observe the steepness of that curve to help deduce the amplitude of just what could be about to occur. Could a flattening be about to happen from the steep angle we currently see. Maybe it's a good time to look at John Murphy's Intermarket PerfChart. Murphy explains the Inverse and Positive relationships between the four majors, Stocks,Bonds,Commodities and Cash. This should help in determining an entry point to the MooseCall. Be Patient. Take some time to study the relationships amongst the 4.
Thanks for stopping by and as long as you're here, click around at the links to the left sidebar for more free info on the markets!
Just incase you have some time for extra study this week. Read this STORY to catch some insight to what the "f" is going on here in the good ol' USA.
Labels: commodities, decisionmoose, technical analysis, weekly update
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