ThinkExist Dynamic daily quotation

Sunday, March 30, 2008

 

RedDirt's Weekly Update

We are now one trading day away from the SP500 closing the month lower for the 5th consecutive time. I can't tell you when, or even if, this has ever happened before. The Weekly Chart is trying to tell me we are due for a bounce back to the 1380 area. But who knows for sure, we're in uncharted territory. Bear Market's suck for most people because they just haven't learned what to do and when to do it. A good monthly chart for most Index buy and holders is a good place to start. I can't complain, my 401k is beating the SP500 by 15 percentage points YTD. Whoever said you can't time the market is a FOOL!
The Nasdaq 100 looks to be showing signs of a pulse. Week before last the weekly chart pulled off a bullish engulfing candle. Then, this past week we traded at a higher high. That's NICE! I ran a new GARP SCAN this week and was surprised to see how many tech stocks showed up on the new list. It seems there is a pent up demand for high quality tech stocks and at the same time a decrease in supply. This could lead to a nice surprise to the upside for old name tech stocks.

This past week I finally completed the BRIC Trade Page and what a relief that was. Check it out to see the bullish divergence that has developed. I'll have to keep watching the individual Bric Country ETF's for a clear buy setup before getting involved once again.

I will continue to work on the GREEN TRADE. But for now the ETF of choice is PBW.

As for the MooseTrade. Bill says to stay cash for another week. I would recommend reading Moosecalls every time it updates for some very interesting commentary from Bill Dirlam.

Now for this weeks trading lesson. Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to PLAN!

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# posted by Chris @ 12:15 AM 2 Comments

Friday, March 28, 2008

 

BRIC TRADE UPDATE

I've finally put the finishing touches to my BRIC Trade charts. Click on the RedDirt's BRIC Trade Chart Page link to check it out! Please comment on any improvement's you would like to see for these ten BRIC Trade charts.
Thanks for stopping by.

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# posted by Chris @ 12:49 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, March 23, 2008

 

RedDirtTrader Weekly Update

Let's start this out by looking at the BRIC perfchart. As we see some bullish divergence building on the oscillating indicators, the trend indicators look terrible. The ADX crossed above +DI and -DI is not back to the oversold area. So caution is worth more than Gold at this point in the BRIC Trade. Volume on the BIK has been very low. Another ETF may be stealing some business, I'll take a look and report back later.

Now let's take a look at the Weekly S$P 500 Chart. The 1st thing about this chart that catches my eye is, the 10ema has been riding above the 10sma for awhile now. This would lead me to believe a close above the 10ema(1342.56 as of the close Thursday) could lead to a rally back to the 80ema hi-lo trading band. The lower end of the band is around 1380 and the high end of the band is about to 1430. You may want to take a look at the 60 minute chart for a close up view.

Now for something I normally don't do. We're going to take a look a chart for an individual stock. This is a company that has been buying back stock a very aggressive pace. During their most recent earnings announcement they said the board of directors OK'd another $Billion for stock repurchase. The CFO stated,"WE WILL be buying shares aggressively in the 1st quarter of 2008." How fortunate for this company they were able to do this at around 10 times projected earnings. The chart shows a hammer reversal, then a gap up, followed by a successful test of that gap for support. Take a look HERE and tell me what you think!

I can't leave you without something to study. So click on this LINK for some interesting analysis on trend lines.

# posted by Chris @ 12:42 AM 3 Comments

Thursday, March 20, 2008

 

New Upgrade



I recently upgraded my trading desk with Samsung 19'' wide screen monitors. One of the best trades I've made this year. 1440x900 resolution. WOW!! What nice charts to look at now. $189 USD at my local SAM's Wholesale. This is definitely the way the Internet is meant to be viewed.

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# posted by Chris @ 12:50 AM 2 Comments

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

 

BRIC Update



The BricPerfChart is showing some signs of bullish divergence. We never got to oversold territory on the stochastic in order to give me another buy signal for a trade. Volume on the BIK was also very low not a good signal. I'm sure when you look at the individual charts for BRAZIL , RUSSIA , INDIA & CHINA you must be wondering what's up with the 3 moving averages. I can't explain it all here in this post but I would strongly recommend reading THIS BOOK . You'll learn about the "GATOR" and buy & sell fractals. Some really helpful stuff when it comes to recognizing where support and resistance is. You may also be wondering why I always use Candlestick charts rather than line charts for the individual ETF's. Here are a couple of other books that I would strongly recommend. Book#1 & Book#2 . Of course you can always start out by just going to Chart School for free. I am convinced that if a trader learns to read the charts it will improve your chances of being successful. So never stop learning, read every thing you can. I have several Learn Something New links here on the left sidebar of my blog where you can click away to your hearts content.

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# posted by Chris @ 12:16 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, March 15, 2008

 

WEEKLY UPDATE



There is no such thing as a quadruple top! It will be broken. This past week we closed above the hanging man on the $VIX. I would be very cautious at this point. I'm looking for a little rally Monday then a very steep sell-off to 1176 on the S&P 500. Now that we know the bottom is close, look to be holding that small long but get ready to go all out around the 1176 area on the S&P500.(I'm saying the 1270 will more than likely fail,,,Sorry) Full Moon low will be GOOD FRIDAY. All the easy money will be made at a $VIX around 40. This is just the RedDirtTrader's view by looking in the rear view mirror!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The NYSI broke it's trend line last week which tells me there is a lower low coming!

Good luck and be looking for a little bounce Monday then a REALLY good buying opportunity late this week. The stochastic started up last Monday on the BRIC TRADE so we didn't get a stoch buy signal. This has me waiting on the sidelines. By looking at the individual charts the EWZ and RSX look to be the strongest at this time. That makes sense. Raw materials and commodities you know!

As for the DECISIONMOOSE I think there will be a switch to cash coming very soon. His program may say to hold GLD for another week, but I'm thinking I would be looking to take a profit here.

Thanks for stopping by and good luck next week!

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# posted by Chris @ 9:42 PM 0 Comments

Saturday, March 8, 2008

 

Weekly Update



I'll be working on my RedDirtTrader charts this week. Since most of the hits I receive here at RedDirtTrader have to do with the BRIC trade I've decided to expand on that area. I will be moving several charts from my public list to private stock lists. Gone will be the Oklahoma Charts of Interest and the Garp Scan Stocks. You can still get the most recent GARP scan results by clicking on my Google Page link. New additions will be the individual ETF's for the BRIC countries. I'm also going to expand the BlackGold:GreenGold charts. New links will include commodity and currency ETF's. With the work in progress it may mess up some of the linked charts from earlier posts. Sorry about that but I feel this is a move in the right direction.

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# posted by Chris @ 1:42 PM 0 Comments

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

 

Small Buy


Keep an eye on any break and close above 31.09 on the $VIX. If that occurs take advantage by shorting the market or buying an inverse fund. ON the other side of that trade it may be a good idea to purchase a small long position at this time with a stoploss below the nearest sell-fractal. In the case of the SP500 that would be 1270.05
I'm not trying to catch a falling knife here, I'm just looking at what could possibly turn out to be the bottom. The 1270 area is 38% retracement level from the highs and is also support of the 360 degree channel. So all I'm saying is "there is a better than average chance that 1270 support will hold." If for whatever reason it doesn't, I'm looking for a violent move to the downside.

# posted by Chris @ 1:42 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, March 2, 2008

 

Weekly Update


THIS CHART is a look at the monthly candles for the S&P 500. It reminds me of a scene from a movie called "The Missing" with Tommy Lee Jones when he had to make the decision to powerdrive his enemy off the edge of a cliff knowing that his momentum would carry himself over the edge also. By doing so, he saved his daughter and grandchildren, but he also fell to his death. Now if you look back to 1998 on the chart in which you will see a long red candle that appears at the time of the Russian default. Just a blip on the radar for our markets but look how strong Russia's economy is now. Who, would you say is reaping the most from the end of the COLD WAR! It took a few years but we paid the price starting in 2000 with the worst bear market for stocks, (but the beginning of the great bull market in commodities) since the great depression. This would lead me to keep a close watch on the markets of the soviergn fund countries over the next couple of years. They may do pretty well over the next few years but someone will take a major fall just as we did by helping to bail out the Russians.
Now for the latest Moosignal. I'm posting before it is updated so you may have to hit the refresh button on the link. My thoughts are the signal will be to continue holding GLD. Although had I entered the trade at the last switch I'd surely place a trailing stop just below the BLUE TRADING BAND on the chart.
As for a GARP SPOTLIGHT stock I think it may be time to take a look at ATRO. Even if ASTRONICS receives a few crumbs off the orders for defense and passenger jets it could do OK.

# posted by Chris @ 12:49 AM 0 Comments

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