Saturday, June 14, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
I'm starting out this weekly update by discussing my GarpScan and the stocks that show up on that scan. The first thing I want to look at is a stock that showed up on every scan in January and my only scan in February. Then I ran a scan the day after this stock broke out to the upside and it disappeared from my scan. Here is the Yahoo Profile for the stock I'm talking about. I was really surprised to see IXYS Corp. show up on my most recent scan from June 8th after nearly doubling from the March lows. IXYS actually falls into two catagories of trades I monitor. My Garp trades and my Green trades. It makes me wonder, is this the next Microsoft or Walmart? I've added the direct link to the GarpScan Results to the top of my sidebar on this blog. What's really impressive is IXYS not only showed up on my most recent scan, but it ranks #3 on the list in Price/Sales and only a 15% debt Ratio. That's a good sign. With a PE of 17 versus the industry average of nearly 21 it leads me to believe this stock has some room to run. PSYS has formed a cup&handle chart pattern. AXTI has built a 3 month long base and looks to be getting ready to break out to one side or the other. A couple of other long time Garp stocks BUCY & CAM continue their uptrend's even with all the talk that the oil market is about to correct big time. The consumer discretionary stocks on the list like GES, DECK and BJRI are probably wait and see candidates.Now for the BRIC Trade. India led the way this past week with gain of 2.25%. If you combine all 5 daily candles for the week it would look like a hammer has formed on a weekly basis. This past weeks low of $57.85 for the INP could be a bottom for now. Russia finished in 2nd place for the week with a slight loss, down 0.2%. China got a little bounce Thursday but finished the week with a loss down 2.28%. Brazil was this weeks big laggard dropping another 4.2% on the week. Every chart on the BricTrade Page shows the stochastic in over sold territory. India looks like it will be the 1st ETF to provide a buy signal.
This past Friday I took a position in the SSO because of the action that took place on the 60 minute chart when we got a couple of nice bounces from the gap area the hourly chart. The 60 minute chart managed to close above the trading band. A break above the last candle on Friday I may add to the trade. A break above last weeks high I will for sure add to the trade because of the bullish looking doji on the weekly chart. I was seeing buy signals on the 1 minute chart. that reinforced my decision. I didn't load the truck. Just took a 40% allocation to the trade off of 2 positive time frames. The Daily , Weekly and Monthly have some more work to do to turn me positive in those time frames. I've also started building a position in GE. Over 4% dividend and seems to me they're in a sweet spot with the dollar and foreign sales , the wind power & solar, infrastructure(water and other utilities) and transportation(planes, trains and automobiles). I've traded GE twice in the past year and made $ on both trades. This time I'm thinking about pulling in some big bucks..Let's hope it works out! I'll also be keeping a close eye on the QLD as the $NDX:$SPX ratio chart has continued to impress with the tech stocks out performance of the 500 for awhile now. I'll use the QLD as a proxy to the SSO to help me beat the S&P500 return.
Don't forget to follow along with decisionmoose.com to see what Bill Dirlam's program is telling him to do. You can click HERE to watch the charts and any switches that are made.
And now for some of that 4 letter stuff. (WORK) Here are a couple of links to study that could help you become a better informed analyst. I use this indicator to not only help me determine when something is over bought or oversold but it also helps when detecting bullish or bearish divergence. Link#1 & Link#2
Labels: bearish engulfing, BRIC ETF's, candlestick charts, decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, stockcharts, weekly update
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Long Term Trend Weekly SP500 Chart
WOW! By looking at the 60 minute and the 1 minute chart I've missed out on some really good trades while my power was out. But the trend is still up according to the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The power outage was a blessing in disguise. IT allowed me time to study and to prepare the daily chart for what I feel will help in my decision making. The updated indicators along with the tried and true trading channels really cleaned up the daily chart. What I've done is establish a better feel for the "smart" money flow into and out of the market. Also, I've added straight line support and resistance levels using trading channels at degrees of importance. By looking at the daily candle for 12/12/2007 you can see the indecision in the market. The 60 minute chart formed a hammer on the last candle Wednesday which is encouraging although it is below the 35 period channel on the chart. So, watch the bottom of that last candle from Wednesday on the 60 minute chart and use that level as support. That's all for now. Oh yea, I'm still 66% long this market. The other 34% is still drawing 6%/yr. and probably(hopefully) always will be. I'll be busy the next couple of days due to the ice storm so posting here will be limited.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
Since this is a weekly update lets take a look at the WEEKLY SP500 CHART. The thing about this chart that really stands out is the lower lows in the price and the higher lows for the RSI. Wouldn't you consider this to be bullish. Now all we need is a catalyst to turn the market up and confirm the big bullish divergence in the weekly chart. The 2006 lows are a major support level and the 50% retracement level(1172) coincides with the neckline(1176) of the last great bear market. Can the market become even more oversold? The Monthly Chart has the Williams%R at -96. This tells me we are at the most oversold level this market has seen in the past 22 years. Damn, maybe it's time to start buying. And yet it may be time to hide the women and children, because the big bad bear may not be done devouring the bull's. What can we look for to see if this market is about to make a turn. How about GE's earnings report this Friday. Now if they can just beat the street as badly as they missed last quarter, this bell weather could take the lead and get the market's headed back up. I think I'll go see what Bill Dirlam has to say on his latest MooseCall. I'll be updating the GarpScan early this week looking for some bargain basement buys. Be sure to check back in to see what shows up. I'm also keeping a close watch on the BRICTRADE charts to let me know when the timing is just right to go long.Thanks for stopping by and good luck with all your trades.
Labels: decisionmoose, RedDirts BRIC Trade, sp500, stock scans, weekly update
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Chart Watch
The doji candle from last Friday could be a bottom for now. I'll be expecting a nice rally from here if the low from Friday holds up during Mondays trade. A rebound to around 1000 on the $SPX would be 38% retracement of the move down from 1576. I'm starting my new job tomorrow so I'll be focusing more on the daily and weekly charts. I'll be using limit and stop orders to make all my trades. I've added a new link to the Blogs I Read sidebar. Click on DITC to check it out.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Check out the $NDX(click here for updated chart)
Last Friday I added a comment to the weekly $NDX chart. The support areas are no longer valid as they have moved as the price has moved. So we now look to old resistance to see if new support tries to form in that area. If not look to old support. If all else fails just watch this CHART which led me to make this earlier POST .
Labels: major indices, Nasdaq 100, stockcharts, technical analysis
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Tradable Decline is Nearing
My Chart Watch post from March 8th (click the link to the left and read the post just below or go to the archives and look it up) turned out to be a very profitable trade. I invested about 10% of my capital and increased my total return by 25%. That means I had a boat load of big winners. F, BWEN, DRYS, DDM, GE, VRAL just to mention a few. Now if I have had the guts to push all my money into the market I may well have been 5 yrs. closer to retirement. But, we must remember Bulls make money, Bears make money and Hogs get slaughtered.
Now is the time to show patience when trying to take a position that will make money in the opposite direction. All of my orders from my last post that would have placed me in a bearish position did not get filled. That tells me the market proved me wrong. I had enough sense to not place market orders. I placed stop and limit orders which would have let the market prove me right! It didn't happen. That strategy got rid of some holdings like Berkshire and kept me in positions like XRX and DRYS. Which both of those stocks as well as others I've already taken healthy profits from. So, here's where I'm at, very few dollars in the market with a lean toward overbought and looking to play a correction or continuation to the downside. I will be patient and not allow emotion to overrule logic. Trades will be placed above resistance and below support. The Moose entered a new position and of last Wednesday you could have got in below the MoosePrice. Good luck to all and thanks for stopping by to see what the hell ol' RedDirtTrader has been up to!
Now is the time to show patience when trying to take a position that will make money in the opposite direction. All of my orders from my last post that would have placed me in a bearish position did not get filled. That tells me the market proved me wrong. I had enough sense to not place market orders. I placed stop and limit orders which would have let the market prove me right! It didn't happen. That strategy got rid of some holdings like Berkshire and kept me in positions like XRX and DRYS. Which both of those stocks as well as others I've already taken healthy profits from. So, here's where I'm at, very few dollars in the market with a lean toward overbought and looking to play a correction or continuation to the downside. I will be patient and not allow emotion to overrule logic. Trades will be placed above resistance and below support. The Moose entered a new position and of last Wednesday you could have got in below the MoosePrice. Good luck to all and thanks for stopping by to see what the hell ol' RedDirtTrader has been up to!
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Watching the $
This index is worth watching right now in my opinion! Looking at the daily chart the US Dollar is now setting inside of the support trading band. Most recently that trading band has been bullish. Price has been above the band for sometime now. That band has turned neutral.(sideways)_In other words it's not trending up or down but has turned toward the 3 o'clock on the chart. Is this distribution or rest and pause before a third leg up since finding support at 74.21
Looks like a good time to start watching the short term trend on some of the majors. Personally the shortest time frame that I chart on the currencies is 3-minute. Other than that I'll also watch my charts set to 133tk, then a 1 hour with pivots and also a 2 hour with a 34 hi-lo-close ema trading band. Then of course once/day I'll look at the daily. Once/week I'll look at the weekly. Once/month I'll look at the monthly time frames.
I know this post sounds indecisive and it should. That's where the market is at this point. Undecided! But, the effects of direction in this currency could effect the price in commodities, bonds and stocks.
The recent run in the stock market with light volume is not a very convincing breakout! When the pullback comes we should look to find support at or near the breakout point that everyone talks about. 1145-1150 on the S&P! We could possibly see a high of 1227 before that pullback happens. Then I expect to see the VIX to continue moving up with price for sometime. Most people associate a rising VIX with falling prices in stocks. But that is not always the case. Volatility also occurs to the upside not always the downside.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
RedDirt's Weekly Update
The Advance-Decline Line tells us we are still in a downtrend. The problem with this indicator is, in the past I have seen it trending lower has a small portion of the stocks in a total market will carry an Index higher. Sometimes much higher. This indicator is therefore somewhat deceiving. It could actually be trending lower and the overall market could be making higher highs. So, what to do? I would suggest not throwing this advance-decline line out. What I feel is important is to watch it along with the $vix and growth vs. value to try and determine where the action is. Just look at what Apple, Google and a few other stocks where able to do by themselves as far as moving an Index. It's the new leaders that emerge when other's begin to fail that support the whole system. Sorry, but that's just the way things are.
The latest MOOSECALL from William Dirlam is once again to stay $CASH$. Who could blame him for being conservative. It's your money he's trading not his. I would be willing to bet he is buying some positions with his own money @ these ridiculously low prices. XRX trading at 10 times earnings. GE trading at 13 times earnings. Come on, get real. Do you really think multi-nationals with products and services in BIG demand in a growing world economic expansion will not thrive over the next decade? I believe things are much better than they appear to be. Sure, big banks could fail, hedge funds could collapse, families could be booted out of their homes. But, America WILL Survive.
Now on to what I'll be working on over the next few weeks. MORE FREE CHARTS to come. I'll be working on the replacement BRIC TRADE charts. Also, I'll be adding links to my GARP SCAN stocks. Charts for every stock that shows up on the scan. You can click HERE to see all the stocks that made the most recent GARPSCAN.
Tonight I toured the area that will be affected by T. Boone Pickens Plan . The land affected is mostly wheat fields. The 35000 volt high lines will cut the town of PIEDMONT basically in half. When I drive into my little bed and breakfast community, the sign coming into town reads,"Winds of Progress". So, as I see it, if we are willing to divide this community in half to escape our dependency on foreign oil, it's worth it! Boone's plan is already in affect. There will be more GAS RIGS drilling in Oklahoma next year than any time in history! This state truly is recession proof. T.Boone supported Bush during his race to be President. Boones' support for him was based on building an Energy plan to ween us off foreign oil. Bush spent 6 years in office with a Republican Congress and NEVER made any progress. T. Boone got so "pissed off" that he said," the hell with Bush and the Saudi Bastard's, I'll do what needs to be done all by myself." He is proving, one man can make a difference. There will soon be a new ETF trading on the AMEX. The proposed symbol will be "OOK". Yes, Oklahoma is OK. The ETF will feature Oklahoma based companies, either headquartered here or having a major presence in this state. OOK has outperformed the S&P500 by over 20% each year since 2000. Of course the Index was heavily energy weighted. Things could quickly swing to technology. Wind, Switch Grass, Solar etc... I'm pretty sure the ETF will fall once it begins trading, But at some point in time it will be a great buy!
I'll soon be back to posting my normal weekly update. We'll look at one chart, study the indicator's attached to that chart, and talk about the support and resistance levels corresponding to the chart at hand.
Thanks for stopping by and Good Luck with all your trades!
Labels: decisionmoose, garp stocks, green trade, growth stocks, sp500, stock scans, technical analysis, weekly update
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The Chart RedDirt is Watching!
RedDirt will be watching for this chart to find support around the 250 mark! This could take some time. If I see a big break below the 250 line and then take a look at the daily $SPX and see a high volume down day with a big drop on the $NYAD it will confirm that we are on our way to forming a right shoulder in a reverse Head&Shoulder Pattern. Watch and see if we bounce off the 250 line on the $SPXA200, then look for a reversal candle such as a hammer or bullish engulfing on the daily S&P500 chart. That will tell me to get long and hope for the best. Reading charts takes time to learn, so hang in there and study all you can. Start by checking out the StockCharts ChartSchool. Be patient and read it from cover to cover. Lots of really good FREE info is stored there.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Weekly Update
THIS CHART is a look at the monthly candles for the S&P 500. It reminds me of a scene from a movie called "The Missing" with Tommy Lee Jones when he had to make the decision to powerdrive his enemy off the edge of a cliff knowing that his momentum would carry himself over the edge also. By doing so, he saved his daughter and grandchildren, but he also fell to his death. Now if you look back to 1998 on the chart in which you will see a long red candle that appears at the time of the Russian default. Just a blip on the radar for our markets but look how strong Russia's economy is now. Who, would you say is reaping the most from the end of the COLD WAR! It took a few years but we paid the price starting in 2000 with the worst bear market for stocks, (but the beginning of the great bull market in commodities) since the great depression. This would lead me to keep a close watch on the markets of the soviergn fund countries over the next couple of years. They may do pretty well over the next few years but someone will take a major fall just as we did by helping to bail out the Russians.
Now for the latest Moosignal. I'm posting before it is updated so you may have to hit the refresh button on the link. My thoughts are the signal will be to continue holding GLD. Although had I entered the trade at the last switch I'd surely place a trailing stop just below the BLUE TRADING BAND on the chart.
As for a GARP SPOTLIGHT stock I think it may be time to take a look at ATRO. Even if ASTRONICS receives a few crumbs off the orders for defense and passenger jets it could do OK.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
10 yrs. of Observation
After years of listening to others and reading everything I can about the markets, I've come up with the most simple chart, on a daily bases, to help make wise trade decisions. It will simply be referred to as RedDirtsDeadBeatChart. The blue moving average should be well known to all those that read the Wall Street Journal. The blue 65 day simple moving average shows up on their charts in every publication. The red 29 day simple moving average is something I was taught by a floor trader in Chicago. The green 5 day simple moving average is something the swing and day traders pay close attention! Now, all we have to do is watch these 3 simple moving averages along with volume and candlesticks. This should keep things very simple for those just now starting to trade.
I'm sure if you've looked at the DeadBeatChart you will notice the 29 and 65 day ma's have converged along with the closing price of a long white candle. I've added the link to this chart on the sidebar. This chart led me to exit a 3 day swing trade to the upside with only 2 minutes left till the closing bell today!
Thanks for stopping by to see what the RedDirtTrader has been up to.
Friday, January 1, 2010
New Chart List
I've been following Gary from Between the Hedges for many years now. I've always built a watch list of his long positions that he mentions from time to time in his daily post. This week he made building that watch list easy. He posted on Monday with a list of long positions he currently holds. I'm in the process of placing charts for those stocks on the sidebar of my weblog. Look for the BtH Charts! Thanks for stopping by and Happy New Year.Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Turn Around Tuesday?
I'm looking for some kind of a bigger bounce off the support area this market is trying to establish. A gap down on Tuesday with steady buying all day would be the ticket. Some kind of bullish piercing candle formation is what I'm looking for. The past 2 trading days have shown the Bulls are coming back. We've closed well above the lows of the day. Encouraging! Any breakout below 1488 is not good. I feel that a close below 1488 could lead to a retest of Feb. and Aug. lows. I'm seeing a mixed picture right now. I've started to see some positives in the Market Direction chart but, I'm still seeing bearish divergences in the Secret Recipe chart. Follow this LINK to RedDirtTrader to see all the charts that I built and watch everyday to make wise investment choices. Thanks for stopping by and please take time to vote for my charts. It doesn't really mean anything if you do, it's just an ego thing to see votes by my chartlist.
Friday, November 16, 2007
FBB Scan Criteria
Here's what it looks like in plain English:
- FBB SCAN• For the last market close:• United States Stocks with...• Daily Close for today is greater than Maximum Close over 60 days starting yesterday• Daily Close for today is greater than Daily Open for today• Daily Close for today is greater than or equal to 0.25• 63-day Exponential Moving Average of Volume for yesterday is less than or equal to 500000• Daily Close for today is greater than Daily Close for yesterday• Daily Volume for today is greater than or equal to Minimum Volume over 60 days starting today times 5• Daily Volume for today is greater than or equal to Daily Volume for yesterday times 3• Daily Close for today is less than or equal to 5
Here's the Scan Expression:
- [type = stock] and [country = us] and [daily close > yesterday's daily max(60,daily close)] and [daily close > daily open] and [daily close >= 0.25] and [yesterday's daily ema(63,daily volume) <= 500000] and [daily close > yesterday's daily close] and [daily volume >= daily min(60,daily volume) * 5] and [daily volume >= yesterday's daily volume * 3] and [daily close <= 5]
This scan only produces a list of stocks that meet the criteria above. That list of stocks is then thinned down by checking the recent chart pattern and looking at Insider holdings. You may want to thin the list down more by adding other criteria you deem necessary. Once you have your final list, the trading rules must be applied. Basically the first rule is to set a buy stop just above the breakout candlestick. I normally try to watch the open of trading just to make sure there isn't a big gap up. According to what I've read in S&C mag the chart is to be set up with a 3 day ema and 6 day ema. Once your order gets filled you are supposed to stay in the trade until the 3 day ema crosses below the 6 day ema. I have my own set of trading rules that I follow so I basically ignored the articles info on rules. I suggest you use your own trading rules also.
I've tweaked this basic scan by adding other criteria in order to create other scans. For instance adding a certain PE to find only stocks with positive earnings. Or, by adding criteria to find stocks in a certain sector or market cap. Any how, above is the basic layout, tweak away to help you find the stocks that are breaking out of a Flat Base trading range.
Monday, March 23, 2009
market bounce
So far my post from Sunday March 8, 2009 is working out just fine. Candles provide much information that we must pay attention to. As for the long white candle and close above the 65 day ma here on March 23, 2009. I'd say this is a signal to all those trying to short this market,"WATCH OUT!" It could slam you in the face like a sledgehammer. Here's the chart.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Step Up to the Window and Place Your Bet
This is kind of like looking at the $VIX chart isn't it. Technicals say if Vegas was placing a line on this one it would probably be a pick-em. I see some late smart money coming in with a break above 50 on the StochRSI. Should not take long to figure this out if Thursday's high or low get's takin' out. SKF is in my NO-TRADE-ZONE. I'll buy a ticket , kick back and watch this this fight till' the death.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Capitulation Update
We can all see by the previous post that Capitulation has now began. The question is, "HOW long will it last?" Hours, days, or months? I'll be watching this CHART closely. Take a look at Gary's Friday Watch for some interesting reads. TICKERSENSE posted some very interesting charts on the timing of earning announcement's by market cap and the number of companies reporting by date. I found these charts very interesting and think you will too.
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